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Risk Warning Notice | Recent History | Archives

MARKET COMMENT for MONDAY 4TH DECEMBER 2006

HEADLINES

Good Morning Sharecrazies,

This Morning in London takeover activity has been the early driver, with the FTSE-100 gaining 31.3, as RHM's (RHM.L) approach from Premier Foods (PFD.L) and bid speculation on Cadbury's (CBRY.L) lifted both spirits and the market. Alas it was not all good news, as BAE (BA.L) fell 13p, affected by the Saudi fraud investigation. AstraZeneca (AZN.L) received a shot in the arm, climbing 55p, on news that Pfizer (PFZ.L) was terminating its torcetrapib trials, which should benefit the likes of Astra, which provides the ordinary type of statins. At 11:04 the FTSE-100 had eased back as profit-takers pocketed some gains. The index was up 7.7-points at 6029.2.

In no way do I advocate this, I just report news
A woman who claims to be 120-years old, says she has reached this ripe old age by smoking cannabis every day. Fulla Nayak, who lives in a hut in India, says she smokes cannabis cigars and drinks strong palm wine. She lives with her 92-year-old daughter and grandson, 72. She says that she doesn’t know how she’s survived so long, remarking that she has outlived many of her younger relatives.

I just don’t see the necessity for this
A Turkish pensioner has been sentenced to a 26-day reading and writing course at his local public library, after he failed to vote on time in an election for his village cooperative, his son says. The trouble is... the pensioner is blind! A prosecutor in the province of Kutahya in north-west Turkey sentenced 73-year old Ismail Canseven, to the education course after he did not show up for the election of the cooperative's board of directors in May. Ismail pleaded, "What am I going to do in a library? I can't see out of either of my eyes, and I can't read or write anyway." Ismail’s 42-year old son Isa said he would appeal against the sentence served on his father. He underlined his father’s plight by saying that his dad can only find the bathroom by holding on to a piece of string that has been tied to the (bathroom) wall. In Turkey, people are obliged by law to vote in elections. There’s none so blind as those who will not see!


BROKER RECOMMENDATIONS

ABN reiterates hold AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and says hold Compass (CPG.L) (raising the price target to 275p from 250p).
The broker says hold EMI (EMI.L).

Canaccord reiterates hold Oxus Gold (OXS.L) (30p target).

Cazenove has upgraded Scapa Group (SCPA.L) to in-line from underperform and reiterates outperform on Morgan Crucible (MGCR.L).

Citigroup reiterates buy Morgan Crucible (MGCR.L) and says hold FKI (FKI.L) (raising the price target to 100p from 95p).
The broker says buy 370p target for Ceres Power (CWR.L), a hold for Britvic (BVIC.L), raising target to 245p from 235p and downgrades Wilson Bowden (WLB.L) to sell from buy while raising target.

Collins Stewart says sell Kelda (KEL.L) and Severn Trent (SVT.L) and buy Stagecoach (SGC.L) (150p target) and Barclays (BARC.L) (850p target).

Credit Suisse reiterates neutral on Halma (HLMA.L) (raising the price target to 220p from 200p and estimates) and has upgraded Vodafone (VOD.L) to outperform from neutral (raising the price target to 149p from 130p).

Deutsche says sell GCap Media (GCAP.L) (cutting target to 135p from 145p).

Dresdner Kleinwort has downgraded AstraZeneca (AZN.L) to reduce from hold and has initiated coverage of Anglo Irish Bank (ANGL.L) appending a buy recommendation.
The broker says add Bank of Ireland (BKIR.L) and hold Allied Irish Banks (ALBK.L).
Dresdner has issued a note on Mid and Small-Cap Retailers, in which they have downgraded Alexon (AXN.L) to sell from hold, upgraded Carpetright (CPR.L) to reduce from sell, upgraded Lookers (LOOK.L) to add from hold, downgraded Ted Baker (TBK.L) to reduce from hold and have initiated coverage of Woolworths (WLW.L) and French Connection (FCCN.L) appending reduce recommendations and reiterates buy Galiform (GFRM.L).

Evolution has downgraded Rank (RNK.L) to add from buy (280p target) and says buy UK Coal (UKC.L) (raising the target price to 500p target).
The broker has downgraded First Choice (FCD.L) to add from buy (270p target) and reiterates buy AstraZeneca (AZN.L) (3250p target).
Evolution says buy ITM Power (ITM.L) (200p target) and Morgan Crucible (MGCR.L) (300p target) and add National Grid (NG.L) (743p target).
The broker says buy Plant Health Care (PHC.L) (250p target) and Premier Foods (PFD.L) (740p target).

Goldman has neutral on Findel (FDL.L) (raising the price target to 601p from 552p, raising estimates), Holidaybreak (HBR.L) (cutting the price target to 827p from 856p, reducing estimates), Kingfisher (KGF.L) (cutting the price target to 220p from 222p, reducing estimates), PartyGaming (PRTY.L) (cutting the price target to 35p from 37p, reducing estimates), Topps Tiles (TPT.L) (raising the price target to 261p from 238p) and United Business Media (UBM.L) (raising the price target to 645p from 620p).
The broker has upgraded Premier Foods (PFD.L) to neutral from sell.

HSBC has issued a note on the UK Real Estate, in which they reiterate underweight on Liberty International (LII.L) (1118p target) and has underweight on Hammerson (HMSO.L) (1377p target).
The broker has downgraded United Utilities (UU.L) to underweight from neutral (raising the price target to 758p from 715p).

ING says hold Diageo (DGE.L) (1000p target).

KBC Peel Hunt has a trading buy on Acertec (ACER.L).

Lehman has equal-weight on Vodafone (VOD.L) (150p target).

Merrill reiterates buy Xstrata (XTA.L) (2865p target) and has neutral on IG Group (IGG.L), HSBC (HSBA.L) and Morgan Crucible (MGCR.L).
The broker reiterates buy ICI (ICI.L) (470p target) and has added Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) to its Europe 1 List, raising the price target to 1300p.
Merrill reiterates buy Redrow (RDW.L) (raising the price target to 720p) and has neutral on Berkeley Group (BKG.L).
The broker says buy Wolseley (WOS.L) (cutting target to 1420p from 1450p).

JP Morgan has underweight on Johnston Press (JPR.L) (cutting the price target to 395p from 437p) and overweight on Wolverhampton & Dudley (WOLV.L) (raising the price target to 1800p from 1430p and raising estimates).
The broker has a core overweight recommendation on Carphone Warehouse (CPW.L).

Morgan Stanley reiterates overweight on Intercontinental Hotels (IHG.L) (raising the price target to 1220p from 950p) and has equal-weight on AstraZeneca (AZN.L) (3450p price target).

Nomura reiterates buy CSR (CSR.L).

Panmure Gordon says sell Fiberweb (FWEB.L) (165p target) and EMI (EMI.L) (cutting the price target to 225p from 250p) and buy Creston (CRE.L) (raising the price target to 220p from 204p) and Greene King (GNK.L) (1200p target).
The broker says hold Serco (SRP.L).

SG Securities says buy Signet Group (SIG.L) (141p fair value).

UBS has upgraded Invensys (ISYS.L) to neutral from reduce.

NEWS ROUND-UP

Last Friday in New York shares closed down, but well off the lows on the day, after a report showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector had contracted in November, stoking concerns of a hard landing for the economy. The market was further depressed when crude oil prices closed above $63-a-barrel. However, shrewd investors waited for oil trading to close and then entered the market, snapping up bargains in the last hour of the trading day. The Dow closed down 27.80 at 12194.13 (having recorded a triple digit fall during the day), the Nasdaq fell 18.56-points to 2413.21, while the S&P closed down 3.92-points at 1396.71. On the week the Dow lost 0.7%, the Nasdaq fell 1.9%, while the S&P slipped 0.3%.

On this day in:-
1997 - Europe's health ministers voted to ban tobacco advertising throughout the European Union, although agreed that motor-racing, which relied heavily on sponsorship and advertising by tobacco companies, should be exempt for another 8-years.
1992 - U.S. President George Bush ordered 25,000 U.S. troops into Somalia. In late 1992, civil war, drought, and clan-based fighting created famine conditions that threatened one-fourth of Somalia's population with starvation. The United Nations began a humanitarian mission but found it difficult to distribute food in the war-ravaged nation, so the U.S. agreed to help support the mission with military aid. On 5th June 1993, soldiers under Somali warlord General Mohammed Aidid massacred 24 Pakistani U.N. peacekeepers. U.S. and U.N. forces searched for the elusive strongman, and in August, 400 elite U.S. troops arrived to capture Aidid. Two months later, 18 of these soldiers were killed and 84 wounded during a disastrous assault on Mogadishu's Olympia Hotel. As many as 1,000 Somalis were killed in the violent 17-hour firefight. Three days later, with Aidid still at large, recently inaugurated President Bill Clinton cut his losses and ordered a U.S. withdrawal. Devastating clan fighting continued in Somalia into the 21st-century.
1991 - American Terry Anderson was released by the Islamic Jihad in Lebanon, 2,454 days after being taken hostage in Beirut.
1975 - South Moluccan terrorists hijacked a train and seized the Indonesian Consulate in Amsterdam.
1952 - At least 4,000 people died in a week from breathing difficulties, during a severe London smog.
1937 - One of Great Britain's best-loved comics, the Dandy, was first published by DC Thompson.
1936 - Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin told the House of Commons that King Edward VIII could not marry American divorcee Mrs Wallis Simpson.
1935 - Unemployed engineer Charles Darrow invented the game of Monopoly. It became the world's best-selling box game, with more than 500-million sales.
1905 - The resignation of British Conservative Prime Minister Arthur Balfour.
1829 - Great Britain abolished the Indian custom of 'Suttee' - the ritual suicide of a dead man's widow by joining her husband's funeral pyre.
1804 - Napoleon Bonaparte was officially crowned Emperor of France, after proclaiming himself Emperor in May.
1798 - Prime Minister William Pitt the Younger announced the introduction of Income Tax to help finance the war against France.
1791 - The publication of the first issue of The Observer, the oldest Sunday newspaper in Great Britain.
1586 - Queen Elizabeth I confirmed the death sentence on Mary Queen of Scots.
1154 - The only Englishman ever to be elected Pope, Nicholas Breakspear, became Pope Adrian IV.

WEEKLY DIARY

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Compiled in association with HB PLC and WH Ireland Ltd


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