The Lex Column:
*Occupational hazard – Red alert. The evidence of a US slowdown had recession-watchers in a heightened state. December’s job creation figures will leave them twitching with anticipation.
*Iraqi oil dreams – No mandarin in the Iraqi oil ministry is likely to dine alone over the next few years. Every international major has people on spending big sums on soft persuasion.
*Iowa’s surprise – Baptist preacher and Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee was preaching to the converted in more ways than one.
The Lombard Column:
*Martial law for banks needs careful consideration - It is no surprise that some of the regulatory changes outlined this week by Alistair Darling sound more like a call for one-party rule than a paean to tripartite co-operation.
*Santa Caucus: results in - John Lewis has emerged as the surprise early leader in the 2008 primaries, easily defeating DSG International (DSGI), Next (NXT) and Land of Leather (LAN) as the favourite of most of middle England.
*Truth long acknowledged – A rather staid group, life assurers, may have to bolster reserves, because holders of annuities are living longer.
The Weekend Share Watch:
*Carphone Warehouse (CPW) (Growth potential and takeover talk) - Assad Malic, analyst at Credit Suisse (CRD), has the shares trading on 13.8 times earnings for the year to March 2009, compared with 11.3 times for UK non-food retail companies. That premium highlights Carphone's superior growth prospects.
*Topps Tiles (TPT) – Sturdy trade keeps retailer on top. Now could be a good time to buy into a niche operator.
*Timestrip (TIME) - Shoppers to savour a timely device - While it has admitted frustration that its technology has not been taken up as quickly as expected, it is expected shortly to name another leading consumer product company which in August agreed a deal worth a minimum of $3-million over 3-years.
The Neil Hume on London Column:
*Large-caps offer a beacon in the gloom.
The Trader’s Diary:
*I don’t plan to follow the random path.
*Vanco (VAN) - A comfortable share to trade during uncertain times.
*No holiday for Carnival (CCL).
*Gold makes gleaming start.
Further news:
*Ryanair (RYA) fails to take off on traffic rise.
*Cairn Energy (CNE) powers on after Bangladesh well failure.
*Gresham Computing (GHT) expects narrower losses.
*Equities left in the shade as commodities surge.
*iPhone effects help Carphone (CPW) avoid downward trend.
*Evolution (EVG) sparks interest.
*GCap Media (GCAP) spurns takeover approach from Global Radio.
*Unemployment rise deepens US gloom.
*British Airlines to increase fares.
*Darling unveils plan to stop Northern Rock (NRK) repeat.
*Home loans fall to 3-year low.
*Warning wipes 47% of Land of Leisure’s (LAN) value.
*nPower opens the floodgates with increases.
*Service sector confuse interest-rate picture.
*Ex-Goldman analyst (Eugene Plotkin) jailed for insider deals.
*British Airways (BAY) has been reprimanded for attempting to manipulate a government consultation on the expansion of Heathrow by making false claims about the environmental impact.
The Derek Pain, No Pain, No Gain Column:
*I’m backing my team for a second-half fightback – Depressed prices may lead to a resurrection of the art of bottom-fishing.
*Private & Commercial Finance (PCF) - expect the shares to recover and intend to hang on. As the portfolio paid 19.5p a share, the gain at 24p was small beer, unlike Myhome (MYH) and Prezzo (PRZ).
*Wyatt (WYT) - Chairman Bob Holt's accompanying statement was not quite as bullish as I had expected, but with prospects clearly improving there seems little point in selling at this stage.
*Rentokil (RTO) - Should I sell? I am thinking about it.
The Outlook Column:
*To late, Darling acts over Rock (NRK) debacle.
*Secrets of success at John Lewis - Charlie Mayfield, the chairman, puts it down in part to the company's partnership structure, which enables long-term investment in training, refurbishment and expansion that might be considered profligate in companies driven primarily by the immediate interests of outside shareholders.
*Carphone (CPW) gets hedge fund treatment.
A Day in the Life:
*Joanne Segars, chief executive of the National Association of Pension Funds.
Further news:
*Carphone (CPW) rung up as suitors prepare to call.
At a Glance:
*Turbocharged TXO (TXO) (Texas Oil & Gas).
The Investment Extra Column:
*Rebuilding value is a matter of time (UK property market).
*Few funds have beaten the Footsie.
Further news:
*Recession fears shake markets.
*Rumours of an increased offer north of £10-per-sher for Close Brothers (CBG) from Cenkos, swirled around the market, pushing Close up 15p to 965p.
*Gazprom bids to strengthen gas assets with ‘mind-boggling’ move on Nigerian reserves.
*Scottish & Southern (SSE) seals £1-billion Irish wind power deal.
*Close Brothers (CBG) holds talks with Blackstone of the US.
*Land of Leather (LAN) profits warning casts pall over fragile retail sector.
*The Duke of Westminster's property company, Grosvenor, has secured £170m in development finance for an upmarket residential tower scheme on the south bank of the Thames in London.
*Supermarkets face battle with suppliers.
*Post-Christmas sales bear gifts for some while others are left feeling flat.
*Resource Pacific rejects Xstrata’s (XTA) offer.
*BHP (BLT) will have to dig deep to conquer Rio (RIO).
*‘Recessionary’ job figures will force Fed into rate cuts.
*High oil prices will help Cape (CIU) results.
*Fyffes (FFY) upbeat as exchange rates boost profits.
*EMI still hits the wrong notes in US.
*Nestor (NSR) surges on talk of Mears (MER) bid.
*Markets tumble on fears of recession in the US.
*FSA must improve skills to meet new powers, says British Bankers’ Association.
*Record start for John Lewis clearance.
*Stansted airlines in angry call for the CAA to be scrapped.
*Bizzenergy to light up AIM in £100-million float. Advisers are targeting a float in the Spring.
*Market makers took evasive action on Friday as rumours swept the market that BSkyB (BSY) was about to place 10% of its stake in ITV (ITV).
*Store profits shrink in the big squeeze.
*UK retailers plan overseas invasion.
*Cape (CIU) rides resources boom.
SOME ITEMS THAT COULD INFLUENCE SHARE PRICES
*The Dow Jones closed down 256.54-points at 12800.18, the Nasdaq lost 98.03-points to 2504.65, while the S&P declined 35.53-points to close at 1411.63.
*Interest rates may have to fall as low as 4.25% as the economy slows - and the Bank of England may begin cutting them as soon as next week, economists have predicted.
*The Bank of England has been sidelined in a proposed shake-up of Britain's banking system that will hand greater powers to its regulatory partners, the Treasury and the Financial Services Authority. Chancellor Alistair Darling has limited the Bank's contribution in the event of another Northern Rock (NRK) to an advisory role.
*Assurers in longevity rethink as UK leaders are expected to shore up their reserves, with life expectancy change said to be staggering.
*David Cameron will unveil radical plans next week to pay the private sector for getting millions of people in long-term unemployment back to work. The Tory leader will also propose a "screening" regime to identify fraudulent claimants of invalidity benefit, cutting benefits to people who refuse to make themselves available for work and forcing lone parents to seek employment once their youngest child reaches the age of four.
*The public should be told more about the environmental risks of low-energy light bulbs so they are disposed of correctly, the Environment Agency says. Low-energy bulbs contain small amounts of poisonous mercury and are classed as hazardous waste. If one breaks, the room should be aired and the pieces removed in a sealed bag without using a vacuum cleaner.
*Junior doctors across the UK are being warned the competition they will face this year for specialist training jobs in the NHS will be tougher than ever. As recruitment begins for August, the NHS employer’s body says there may be an average of three applicants per post. Many applicants will be NHS doctors who qualified outside the EU, after the government failed in a 2007 legal bid to give UK medical graduates priority. Without a training post a junior doctor cannot become a consultant or GP.
*A Dutch cargo ship is listing in high winds in the North Sea 90 miles north-east of Aberdeen. The 3,000-tonne Nordgard, which was heading for Grangemouth, has changed direction in an attempt to stabilise the vessel in winds of 50 knots. The Maritime and Coastguard Agency said the stand-by vessel the Ocean Sprite is ready to give assistance if needed. The seven crew of the Nordgard are unable to get on deck to secure the timber cargo because of the weather.
*A jump in US unemployment spells likely recession for investors, as the unemployment rate shot up to 5% in December, a sign that the labour market is stressed as the U.S. economic slump spreads.
*Diplomatic efforts are continuing in Kenya to end a political crisis after last week's disputed presidential poll. Jendayi Frazer, the top US envoy for Africa, has met opposition leader Raila Odinga in Nairobi and is to see President Mwai Kibaki shortly. The opposition say Mr Kibaki cheated to win a second term on 27th December. Post-election violence has claimed 350 lives in the east African country and at least a quarter of a million people have been displaced, the UN believes.
*Britney Spears' former husband Kevin Federline has been given sole custody of the couple's two children. The court ruling came a day after police went to the pop star's house when she refused to return the children after a court-monitored visit. Federline, 26, who did not appear in court, already had temporary custody of two-year-old Sean Preston and one-year-old Jayden James. Another court hearing has been set for 14th January.
*US chip giant Intel (ICO) pulls out of One Laptop Per Child project.
Compiled in association with HB PLC and WH Ireland Ltd
