Special Feature:
*Brits ride the Vietnam tiger – Vibrant Vietnam’s eastern promise.
The Business Focus Pages:
*A White-knuckle week in markets.
*And now watch out for a new crisis... monoline insurers (What are monoline insurers? - They make money by insuring against loans going wrong. If the issuer of a bond goes bust, they guarantee to step in and make interest payments and repay the principal. This security makes borrowing cheaper for companies. Though the monolines started out in the 1970’s to insure bonds issued by American local authorities, they have jumped on the boom in debt markets to grow explosively in recent years. They are estimated to stand behind bonds worth $2.5-$3.3-trillion. In America, they have helped fund everything from building power stations to schools and hospitals. In Great Britain, they played a key role in financing the Channel Tunnel, upgrades to the London Underground, Arsenal’s new stadium and in £5.7-billion of private finance initiative projects).
The Agenda Column:
*Big risks that come with City’s big rewards - According to SocGen (SGN), Jérôme Kerviel created a fictitious client for the bank, used it to make many large trades, and subverted the bank’s security systems to hide his trail. That goes well beyond anything covered by the City’s win-at-all-costs mentality.
*In with the in crowd - Four days in Davos is too much for most businessmen to spare, but four days of frantic networking does make the world go round.
The Economic Outlook Column:
*Will migrants avoid downturn Britain? – no sign yet of a let-up in job growth.
Feature:
*Morrison’s (MRW) flying Dutchman – Marc Bolland.
Feature:
*Maserati roars back into lead - After many years in the wilderness, Ferrari’s one-time rival has finally made a comeback.
The Andrew Davidson Interview:
*Lord Hollick. Labour lord exits stage left - Lord Hollick is stepping down after 6-years of guiding the refurbishment of London’s Southbank Centre. In his day job, he is building a media empire for KKR. Is ITV (ITV) next in his sights?
The Inside the City Column:
*Burns night toast to valiant Scots (Scottish & Newcastle (SCTN)) – Either way, S&N investors are on to a winner.
*St Ives (SIV) – It doesn’t seem like a a safe haven for investors right now.
The Cover Story of the Money Section:
*How to ride the market rollercoaster.
Directors Deals Column:
*Care home bosses (Southern Cross (SCHE)) tuck in after share price falls (Directors Bill Colvin and John Murphy).
*AT Communications (ATCG) - Chief executive Alex Tupman, founder of AT Communications, bought 400,000 shares in the business-communications company after it announced that the 2007 results were expected to be in line with forecasts. His colleague, finance director Ian Crawley, also bought into the company.
Further news:
*Private-equity funds Cerberus and Five Mile are looking to take an equity stake in Northern Rock (NRK) as part of rescue package.
*Pressure on Unilever (ULVR) for big share buyback.
*Whitbread’s (WTB) stalker has emerged as property magnate Asif Aziz, who owns the Trocadero.
Feature:
*Wal-Mart (WAL) did lobby Blair over Asda - Details of a secret Downing Street meeting held between Tony Blair, the then prime minister, and a senior Wal-Mart executive just months before the world's biggest retailer pounced on Asda have finally been released, some nine years after the £7-billion deal was struck.
Feature:
*Have Tesco’s (TSCO) US stores failed to win the West.
The City Editor’s Comment from Davos Column:
*This Davostation will do for central banks - The recession that now looks more probable than even a week ago will claim many thousands of jobs and result in an unprecedented rethink of the way our financial markets are regulated.
*Mittals 1, Beijing 0 - It was on China, where the Mittals are really showing their mettle (in both senses of the word), that he was most interesting, and bold. Having been blocked from buying a controlling stake in one of the country's biggest steel companies, the Mittals have simply gone in through the back door and bought up a Hong Kong-listed firm whose business is across the border.
*KKR goes bargain hunting - The Henry Kravis view is that volatile equity markets represent an opportunity to snap up bargains and that, even with the current financing constraints, the largest of the large private equity firms can still get things done. He even managed to sound happy about his top-of-the-market Alliance Boots megabuy.
*Liverpool bid may still kick off – The City Editor’s sources say that Dubai International Capital remains as keen as mustard.
The Economic Agenda Column:
*Mervyn and the Fed have nothing in reserve.
Feature:
*“There’s thunder and lightning on the horizon - After a stormy week in the markets, just how gloomy is the outlook as the financial crisis rumbles on Peter Koenig takes the temperature.
*Does the crunch mean M&A is dead and buried?
Feature:
*Why the old shoe retailers are on their uppers.
Feature:
*Superhedge – The new global super powers.
The Real Business Column:
*Syndicate Asset Management (SAM) - This is an interesting business fully priced today which is worth tracking for the future.
The Sunday Questor Column:
*In these days of turmoil dividend yields are looking enticing: - Highest Yielding Stocks (FTSE-100): - Lloyds TSB (LLOY), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Kingfisher (KGF), Taylor Wimpey (TW.) and Alliance & Leicester (AL.) - FTSE-250: - Northern Rock (NRK), Mapeley (MAY), DSG International (DSGI), Electrocomponents (ECM) and FKI (FKI).
*Concateno (COT) – Buy.
*RPS (RPS) – Buy.
Profile:
*Boosey & Hawkes boss, John Minch.
The Cover Story of the Your Money Column:
*Sleep easy despite the stock market storms – 8-page guide how to safeguard your savings.
Further news:
*Arqiva offers price cuts to secure £2.5-billion National Grid (NG.).
*Hammerson (HMSO) hopes sale will buck downturn.
*BHP (BLT) not in ore of Rio’s (RIO) China growth.
Cover Story of the Business Section:
*‘Desperate’ high street looks for interest rate cut - Depth of UK consumer slowdown increases pressure on Bank of England to announce a further reduction in borrowing costs.
Market Meltdown Feature:
*Apocalypse not now – The horror that stalked the global stock exchanges as the week opened has been replaced by relief, but the threat to the world as we know it remains.
The Business Editor’s Column:
*Savage for SocGen (SGN) and a slap in the Fed’s face – Bernanke has emerged from this fiasco with a real loss of credibility.
*Brains or hunger - Much has been said about the mathematical and intellectual genius of the French, which has led to their traders leading the world in equity derivatives trading. But Jean-Pierre Mustier, head of investment banking at SocGen (SGN), Mr Bouton's right-hand man and boss of Mr. Kerviel and who trained and worked alongside Antoine Paille (who is considered the father of equity derivatives), added that Anglo-Saxon traders "are still the best. They are hungrier."
*Betting on bricks - Two companies whose share prices have done well over the past 2-weeks of roller- coaster trading are housebuilders Taylor Wimpey (TW.) and Persimmon (PSN). Readers will remember the column tipped them as good bets 2-weeks ago. They have risen by 30% to 193.4p and 826p respectively. Time to take a profit?
The Outside View Column:
*As the US economy has a hard landing, earning still have far to fall.
The Hamish McRae Economic View Column:
*‘Disasters’ aside, the downturn hasn’t changed shape: we’re still on course for a soft, not a hard, landing – The Sovereign Wealth Funds are the new kids at the top table... The scale of the slowdown will be offset by demand from the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India and China).
The City Eye Column:
*One minute you’re a star, the next you’re a rogue – SocGen’s (SGN) Jérôme Kerviel. Re: the Meltdown, the Bank of England offered no support to the interbank market and ended up Northern Rock (NRK), now the French, depite the efforts of the ECB, have SocGen.
Feature:
*Can Tomb Raider’s owner (SCi (SEG)) dodge the grave?
Interview:
*Guillaume Pepy, chief of France’s SNCF.
The Cover Stories of the Financial Express:
*Oil giants to gush biggest ever profits (Shell (RDSA) and Exxon (EXX)).
*Experts predict recession after week of market turmoil.
Focus:
*Markets fear chaos as the US cuts back.
Further news:
*BHP (BLT) to consider market tremors before decision on Rio (RIO) bid.
*Friends Provident (FP.) to scupper £4-billion JC Flowers’ bid.
From The Sunday Times
*Brazil’s Vale lines up $50-billion for Xstrata (XTA) (Business p1)
*A number of European hedge funds have been forced to introduce emergency measures to protect their businesses from collapsing in the wake of the turmoil in financial markets
*Insurer Friends Provident (FP.) ready to unveil break-up plans (B2)
*Ukraine coal firm, Lubel, to float on AIM (B2)
*In a note on Ferrovial, BAA’s owner, published last month, JP Morgan’s analyst Robert Crimes said the airport company had a large capital expenditure programme at Heathrow and Gatwick, its two biggest airports, and a high interest bill and could run out of cash next year unless it can complete its delayed refinancing or sell assets (B3)
From The Sunday Telegraph
*Sky (BSY) plans to write-off £340-million as ITV’s (ITV) share price plummets (Business p1)
*Qataris poised to snap up $3-billion stake in Credit Suisse (CRD) (B1)
*Charles Allen, the former chief executive of ITV (ITV), may be about to make his first foray into the fashion world, as he is backing a vehicle that has made it through to the final stages of the £100-million auction of Kurt Geiger (B1)
*Friends Provident (FP.) plans shake-up to cut costs (B2)
*Cadbury (CBRY) puts its money where his mouth is with plan to protect Ghana’s cocoa industry (B2)
*Renal Services, a specialist provider of kidney dialysis treatment, is planning to become London's first flotation this year in the healthcare sector (B2)
*Lloyd’s of London sets its cap at reinsurance market in Brazil (B2)
*Hamleys Christmas goes like clockwork (B2)
*Dolcis paid off loan just before collapse (B3)
From The Independent on Sunday
*Celebrity investors defy property fears with launch of new fund (B2)
*Collins Stewart (CLST) chiefs consider MBO (B2)
From The Mail on Sunday
*Fears over delay to Northern Rock (NRK) results (p49)
*La Senza lines up increase in growth (p50)
*Battered Woolworths (WLW) may cash in massive DVD stake (p50)
*Insolvencies set to soar this year (p52)
*Kenny Dalglish eyes JJB’s (JJB) six football domes (p53)
From The Sunday Express
*JC Flowers and Cerebus eye up new bids for Northern Rock (NRK) (FE1)
*Defence budget in £15-billion squeeze (FE2)
*Profits tumble at Toyota’s UK car arm (FE2)
*HSBC’s (HSBA) bosses to confront rebel (FE3)
SOME ITEMS THAT COULD INFLUENCE SHARE PRICES
*Colette Mills, who is suffering from breast cancer, has run out of time to benefit from a potentially life-extending drug which the National Health Service (NHS) denied her, even though she was prepared to pay for it. In 1948 the Government put legislation in place that provided people in Britain with free diagnosis and treatment of illness, at home or in hospital, as well as dental and ophthalmic services.
*A survey carried out by Doctor Magazine, found that doctors are calling for NHS treatment to be withheld from patients who are too old or who lead unhealthy lives. Smokers, heavy drinkers, the obese and the elderly should be barred from receiving some operations, according to doctors, with most saying the health service cannot afford to provide free care to everyone. Fertility treatment and "social" abortions are also on the list of procedures that many doctors say should not be funded by the state.
*Labour Minister, Alan Johnson, has been embroiled in a scandal over donors, after he was accused of accepting cash through a proxy.
*FSA scrambles to close rogue trader loopholes.
*As many as 20,000 City jobs are likely to be wiped out by the financial crisis, according to one of the first comprehensive forecasts of the toll on London's economy.
*A London prime broker told The Sunday Times that even before last week’s extreme gyrations, nearly two-thirds of London-based hedge funds had lost between 4% and 10% of their value. A “significant number” had lost much more, he said.
*Hundreds of village schools are threatened with closure because of government targets and pressure to fill empty places, campaigners warn. The National Association for Small Schools claims more than 100 in England and Wales have already been earmarked for closure and many more will follow. It blames government targets for new services such as out-of-hours tuition, which smaller schools cannot provide.
*Great Britain is likely to face a shortfall in electricity generation within five to seven years, a report concludes. Energy and environment consultancy firm Inenco says that the number of nuclear and coal plants coming out of service over the period makes shortages likely. Old coal plants, whose operating hours are limited under European legislation, have been running more than expected because of higher gas prices. But other analysts say new plants can be built quickly and shortages avoided.
*Rogue trader, Jérôme Kerviel, was taken into custody after police searched his home and his office at Société Générale (SGN). The bank claims that unauthorised trading by the 31-year-old cost it £3.7-billion. Daniel Bouton, the beleaguered chairman, insisted yesterday that the trader had acted alone, like an “arsonist” who “burnt down a big factory”.
*Former Fed chief, Alan Greenspan, believes there is little "hard evidence" of a US recession, but a better than even chance of a severe downturn.
*Up to 10 European hedge funds have suspended redemptions after investors clamoured for their cash when the managers made severe losses.
*US presidential hopeful Barack Obama has secured a decisive win in the South Carolina primary election, as he bids to be the Democratic Party's candidate. The Illinois senator beat his main rival, Hillary Clinton by 55% to 27%, with John Edwards third on 18%.
*Paddy Ashdown says he has informed the UN Secretary General that he no longer wishes to be considered for the post of envoy to Afghanistan. He said the job needed the support of the Afghan government which "effectively does not exist". The statement came after Afghanistan said it preferred Gen John McColl, NATO's deputy commander in Europe.
*A "large" US spy satellite has gone out of control and is expected to crash to Earth, sometime in late February or March, Government sources say. Officials speaking on condition of anonymity said the satellite had lost power and propulsion, and could contain hazardous materials. In the US, the White House said it was monitoring the situation. A spokesman said "numerous" satellites had come out of orbit and fallen back to Earth harmlessly over the years. "We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause," said Gordon Johndroe, who speaks for the US National Security Council. Questioned by The Associated Press, he would not be drawn on whether the US would try to destroy the satellite, perhaps with a missile.
Compiled in association with HB PLC and WH Ireland Ltd
