The Lex Column:
*Cutting room – Whether rogue trader Jérôme Kerviel helped panic the Federal Reserve into last week’s emergency interest rate cut is a fun debate. It is also largely irrelevant.
*Global exchanges – After rising about 70% in 2007 on the back of record trading volumes, the Dow Jones Global Exchanges index has lost 15% of its value already this year.
*Japanese inflation – Central bankers in Europe and the US lie awake at night worrying about rising prices. In Japan, inflation is the stuff of dreams.
The Tony Jackson on Monday Column:
*Rally possible but watch out for unknown unknowns – The bulls claim that the Fed was tricked by the fall in European markets caused by the SocGen fiasco. But if the Fed can be stampeded by a bad day in Europe, I’m not sure that leaves us any better off.
*Maybe the markets have priced in all the bad news. It’s remarkable certainly, that SocGen’s shares should have fallen a mere 4% on a wholly unexpected €4.9-billion trading loss.
Feature:
*Standard Life faces awkward questions.
Feature:
*Scotland’s richest person (Sir Tom Hunter) defies the prophets of property doom.
Feature:
*Hedge funds find there is nowhere to hide – Few have escaped the turbulence in the market, in what could be the worst month in the past 10-years.
Lead Story of the FTfm Section:
*Market turmoil set to spark bout of consolidation.
Fund Focus:
*Singular times for sector investor – Walker Cripps High Alpha Fund is gaining from some top bets.
Further news:
*Derivatives boom raises risk of forced bankruptcy for companies.
*Rethink likely on foreign exchange forecasts.
The Comment Column:
*Plenty to keep tongues wagging in the Dog and Duck - From a position a year ago where no sane person had even heard of the sub-prime mortgage market, we have progressed to the position where it is regularly discussed in the Dog and Duck ... Monoliners may make financial crisis a whole lot worse.
Feature:
*Kerviel’s rogue trades ‘mutated like a virus.'
Profile:
*Mike Farley, chief executive Persimmon.
The AIM Market:
*Investors and professionals look over their shoulder - Despite the usual bias against small caps in any downturn, the London Stock Exchange's junior market has actually held up reasonably well so far this year. While the blue-chip FTSE 100 is down 9% since the beginning of January, the FTSE Aim All-share index has fallen 8.1%.
*Mondial’s 11th-hour rescue - Could there be light at the end of the tunnel for the out-of-pocket investors in Mondial, a cash-shell that is about to be booted off Aim?
Market Profile:
*Mark Turrell, chief executive of Imaginatik.
Further news:
*Airlines to step up airport protests.
*Qatari funds build stake in Credit Suisse.
*US recession ‘will dwarf dotcom slump’, says Stephen Roach, of Morgan Stanley.
The Small Talk Column:
*Dicom overhauled by new chief after a rough year - The group is scheduled to announce its interim results in next month, and said it expects trading to be in line with expectations.
*Torex on the mend - With two major contracts under its belt, Torex is well on the way toward regaining its position as the T Rex of the retail software sector.
*Crimson Tide hits the slopes - After securing a deal with the Ski Club of Great Britain to provide a handheld bit of kit to help streamline the operation around the world.
The Stephen King Column:
*Market convulsions will lead to the return of the state as a major economic force.
Further news:
*Mandelson in call to rescue world trade talks.
*Autonomy set to reveal search technology growth.
From The FT
*Kerviel lawyers accuse SocGen of smokescreen (p1)
*Singapore Sovereign Wealth Fund promises greater transparency (p1)
*Tesco in new drive on China (p15)
*Revamped Singapore bourse to rival AIM (p15)
*Vale lines up funds to target Xstrata (p16)
*Cairn India approval close (p16)
*Turquoise in moves to combat market abuse (p16)
*S&N move tests Cork stout rivals (p16)
*Asda hopes to sell power to customers – Wal-Mart’s energy arm to start supplying stores (p17)
From The Times
*Wall Street expects the Fed to cut interest rates to 3% (p41)
*Brazilian government may block Vales’ $80-billion bid for Xstrata (p41)
From The Daily Telegraph
*SocGen chief says SocGen can survive (B1)
*JC Flowers, the US buyout firm stalking Northern Rock, may see its planned €3-billion (£2.2-billion) sale of Dutch investment bank NIBC to Icelandic banking giant Kaupthing blocked by regulators (B1)
*CDC Group, the private equity business owned by the Government, is making the biggest financial commitment in its 60-year history by investing nearly $1-billion (£505-million) in a new emerging market infrastructure fund (B1)
*Turquoise moves closer to launch (B5)
From The Independent
*Scottish & Southern set for Ulster launch (p39)
From The Daily Mail
*Railtracks last rites (p76)
From The Daily Express
*Blocking Branson’s ITV bid costs BSkyB £340-million (p48)
SOME ITEMS THAT COULD INFLUENCE SHARE PRICES
*The Japanese market has fallen heavily, with the Nikkei closing almost 4% lower, on continuing anxiety over world economic prospects and in particular the US outlook on interest rates and recession.
*In Hong Kong the Hang Seng closed almost 4.75% lower.
*Key advisor says that UK’s new nuclear policy is flawed (Professor of Energy Policy, Oxford).
*Deloitte says house price slump could provoke period of slow growth.
*The Prince of Wales’ decision not to attend this summer’s Olympic Games in Beijing, is being viewed as a snub to the Chinese government.
*According to a YouGov poll, millions of voters fear the economic slowdown will leave them worse off and trust David Cameron to protect their household finances more than Gordon Brown.
*Little enthusiasm for Gordon Brown’s plan to revamp IMF.
*Derby County FC have named their new owners as the American-based group General Sports and Entertainment. The group has agreed an investment partnership with the club, which will not involve them taking on any debt. "This is a significant day in the history of this club," Derby chairman Adam Pearson said.
*Red Cross workers are bracing for the grim task of counting the dead in the Rift Valley town of Naivasha, scene of Kenya's latest post-election violence. They said they could not establish a proper toll until they had searched the charred remains of burnt houses after a day on which at least 19 people died. Troops have restored some order but fear still grips the town, reports say.
*Fortis could face €1-billion hit from impact of subprime.
Compiled in association with HB PLC and WH Ireland Ltd
