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Hello Crazy Folk,
The markets are all over the place. I have never - over the donkey's years I've been playing around in Crazyland - known such wild swings in the Footsie and the Dow.
This means that nobody really knows how to play it. They are following the trends. If there's a small movement upwards, then everyone piles in (not having a firm view of their own) and the Footise curve becomes even more steep.
If there's a bit of selling going on, everyone follows that downward trend - and the slow decay becomes a big drop.
Of course, if nobody knows what's going, it is not a situation that will last. Eventually, harder information will hit the public domain and then we will know more surely what to buy, hold or sell.
The big uncertainty at the mo, is just how much have UK banks suffered in the credit crunch thingy. They're not telling us yet, though I think it's likely they would have let us know by now, if it were really bad news.
My own view is - and this is probably little more than wild guess - that the news from banks may not be as bad as some journalists would have us believe. Banks have many fingers in all sorts of pie, and where one stream of revenue hits the skids, another can do very well.
My other view is that all this doom and gloom about banks has already been taken account of in their various beleaguered share values, and I think the worst might be over. And possibly some nice recoveries will soon take place.
I'm not buying any more bank shares - I'm already overweight in that department - but I'm not selling at the moment either. Let's hope I'm right. I may not be. I - and presumably you, dear chum - do not have a crystal ball. Rocking on!
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