13 June 2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
13/06/2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
France take on group leaders Holland in Berne on Friday night, knowing that a defeat would leave them with a mountain to climb in terms of qualification. They can currently be bought at 25, along with group rivals Italy, in the Sporting Index outright market (where you are awarded 100 for winning, 75 for runner up, 50 for losing a semi-final, 25 losing a quarter-final and 0 for worse) and are equal seventh favourites for the title. Sellers at 22 should be aware though that the last time Les Bleus started a major tournament with a draw (World Cup 2006) they went on to contest the final. Holland started in imperious fashion against Italy on Monday night and can now be bought at 48 in the outright index. They last won a major tournament in 1988, but they have made it to the semi-finals in three of the last four European Championships since then.
These two countries have met each other 21 times in their history and Holland have the slight edge with nine wins to France’s eight. Sporting Index can’t split the two sides, but buyers of Dutch supremacy at 0 will take heart from the Orange Army’s recent record – winning five and drawing one of their last six games. French buyers will be concerned that they have drawn two and lost one of their past six games and have only managed to score four goals in those games. However, since 1990 France have only lost one of 22 competitive matches against top-10 ranked teams. Ironically, that one defeat came against Holland in Euro 2000, but it was after both teams had already qualified for the knockout phase.
Buyers of total goals at 2.2 will be concerned that eight of the last 11 contests between these two have seen 2 goals or fewer, whilst three of the four competitive meetings (World Cup and Euros) have also only had 2 goals or less. Les Bleus have only scored four goals in their past six games and all of those games have had 2 goals or less. However, buyers will be hoping the Dutch can continue their goalscoring form, as they average 2.66 goals per game in their last six (16 from past 6 games).
Italy and Romania have met each other 14 times, with the Italians winning 10 of them. Buyers of the time of the first Romania goal will be delighted to hear that they have failed to score the last four times they have played Italy and have only managed to hit the net twice in their last seven games against the Azzurri. However, prior to their 0-0 draw against France on Tuesday, they had scored 13 goals in their previous four games. Italy were also in good form before the tournament, winning three of their four games 3-1. Total goals buyers at 2.2 will be hoping for more of the same, but should be aware that only one of the last seven games between the two countries has seen more than 2 goals.
Martin Johnson’s first game in charge, although Rob Andrew will be stand-in manager, couldn’t be in a more testing arena, as his players take on New Zealand in Auckland. Buyers of All Blacks supremacy at 16 will be delighted that they have won seven of the past nine meetings between the sides. However, they will be concerned that the last time they tasted defeat to England (15-13 in Wellington in 2003) was the first test of the series. Since then, the All Blacks four victories have been by an average winning margin of 20.5 points.
It is undoubtedly a battle of the Kiwis against England this weekend, as the cricketers also face up to each other for a Twenty20 game at Old Trafford on Friday. Punters hoping to buy England’s supremacy will be hoping they win the toss, as the only two times they’ve played Twenty20 against New Zealand they’ve batted first and gone on to win (February 2008). Each time they registered similar totals and suffered the exact same wicket loss, with innings of 184 for 8 and 193 for 8. Another interesting stat is that in both of these games England registered exactly double New Zealand’s sixes, with eight to the Kiwis four in the first match and ten to five in the second. Punters buying total sixes will be hoping for some power-packed hitting from Messrs Pieterson and McCullum, who only managed eight runs between them in the last Twenty20 match.
The world of racing and fashion comes together next week for Royal Ascot. Tuesday features three Group 1 races for the first time ever, as the King’s Stand has been promoted. Undoubtedly the showpiece of day one is the Prince of Wales’s Stakes over 1m2f, a race won by the outstanding Manduro last season. Sellers of SP’s will be concerned that only two favourites have obliged in the last 10 years, but they did win last year and in 2005. In saying that, buyers can’t take too much heart from this race, as there has only been one double-figure priced winner in that time.
