04 April 2008
Trading Talk - a sports trading preview 

Can you imagine what odds you would have got at the beginning of the season about Barnsley, West Brom, Cardiff and Portsmouth contesting the FA Cup semi-finals? The line up for this weekend’s last four stage really is pretty rare. It is only the second time that only one top flight side is represented at this stage since the inception of the football league back in 1888. Also, the game between Cardiff and Barnsley will be just the 12th occasion that two sides from outside the top flight have met in the semi-finals over the same period.

Portsmouth are clear favourites to win the Cup, but they must see off West Brom first if they are to make the final. Buyers of Pompey supremacy with Sporting Index will be concerned that in their last 10 meetings against the Baggies they have only won three, whilst the West Midlanders have won seven. Sellers will be pleased that history favours the Baggies in this one, as they have won the Cup five times, been runner-up five times and last appeared in the final exactly 40 years ago when they beat Everton 1-0 after extra time. Portsmouth on the other hand have only won the Cup once back in 1934 when they demolished the Baggies’ enemies Wolves 4-1. That was the last time they appeared in the final and had previously been runner-up twice.

Although history is against Pompey in many ways, buyers will be relieved that since the Millennium, four Premier League sides have faced lower league opposition in the semi-finals and all have won (’07, Man Utd v Watford, 4-1; ’03 Arsenal v Sheff Utd, 1-0; ’03, Southampton v Watford, 2-1 and ’01, Liverpool v Wycombe, 2-1). Buyers of total goals will be hoping for a repeat of the Baggies’ game last Saturday when they came from behind to beat Colchester 4-3 at home. Interestingly, in their last 10 games, four have seen 5 or more goals, whilst four of the other ten have had 2 or fewer.  However, sellers will be pleased that only two of Pompey’s last 11 games have had more than 2 goals. 

Whatever happens in the semi between Cardiff and Barnsley, the two sides will meet again on the last day of the season and one set of fans will have the bragging rights. Cardiff are the marginal favourites in the supremacy market and buyers will take great heart from Barnsley’s away record this season. They have only won one game away from Oakwell in the league all season, but they have also obviously won the two FA Cup games they have played on their travels. Sellers of Cardiff supremacy will be concerned that the Bluebirds have won two and drawn two of the last four meetings between the two sides. However, they have played each other three times in the FA Cup and it is completely even with one win a piece and one draw. They also have a remarkably similar FA Cup history, having both been in two finals, losing once and winning once two years after they had been runners-up.

Sellers will be delighted to hear that the last time two Championship sides faced each other in the semi-finals, the team lower in the league came out on top. That was Millwall who beat Sunderland 1-0 before going on to lose the final to Man United 3-0 in 2004. Sellers of total goals with Sporting Index in this one will be pleased that only one of Cardiff’s last ten games has seen more than 2 goals, whilst five of the Tykes’ past nine games have had 1 or no goals.

Liverpool travel to the Emirates for the second time in four days on Saturday to face Arsenal for the third time in a week. Buyers of Arsenal supremacy will more than likely be basing their assumption on Arsenal’s recent record against the Reds at home. They have won the last four North London encounters, scoring an average of 3 goals per game. Liverpool’s last win in the league at Arsenal was back in 2000, but they did manage to beat them 4-1 at Anfield last season around this time of year. Buyers of total goals will take heart from last season’s four games averaging 5.25 goals per game. However, the first game of this season only saw 2 goals, so a high scoring encounter is no foregone conclusion.

The world’s most famous horse race takes place at Aintree on Saturday and people up and down the country will be having their one bet of the year. Sellers of SP’s will be hoping the money continues to come for hot favourite Cloudy Lane and that he becomes only the third favourite in the last 11 runnings to win. Buyers of SP’s will be pleased to hear though that in the past 10 years, two horses have won at 16/1, one at 20/1 and a further two at 33/1, including last year’s winner Silver Birch. The weight a horse is allotted can have a huge effect on its winning chances and only one of the past 23 winners has carried more than 11stone to victory. Nine-year-olds are the most successful age group having won eight of the last 29 years.

Sporting Index trade a number of special markets on the National and one of the most popular markets is the total number of finishers. The ground often plays a crucial role in the number that finish and if it comes up very soft, those selling at 14.5 will be hoping for a tidy profit. However, in the past 10 years there have been total finishers of 17, 18 and 21 which will be more to the liking of buyers at 15.5, whilst there have been three occasions when a single-figure field have finished since Earth Summit’s win in 1998. Many punters will also be interested in the winning distance market, as these can vary quite dramatically. Silver Birch only won by ¾ of a length last year and four of the past ten winners have won by 3 lengths or less which will be just the result for those selling at 7.5. However, buyers will take great encouragement from 50% of the winners in the last decade winning by 10 lengths or more.