18 April 2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
Two of the fiercest derbies in the land take place this Sunday, with Birmingham City making the short trip across the city to take on Villa, whilst Roy Keane goes to St James’s for the first time as Sunderland boss. Both North East teams now look to be safe, but that will not make this encounter any less important to the two sets of fans. Buyers of Magpies’ supremacy with Sporting Index will be pleased to hear that Newcastle have won five of the last six against their bitter rivals and you have to go back to 2000 to find the last time the Black Cats beat them. However, sellers will be encouraged that Sunderland have beaten Newcastle in two of the last five meetings at St James’s.
Buyers of total goals will be hoping for a repeat of the two fixtures in 2005/2006 when five goals were scored in both games, but the other most recent five derbies have all had 2 or fewer goals. Big derby games are often expected to be fiery encounters with flurries of yellow and red cards. Although this can be the case, buyers of bookings in the Tyne and Wear derby at 54 will be concerned that the last three meetings between the two sides have only seen make-ups of 30, 30 and 40. However, there are some trends which will give buyers of bookings in both this game and the Birmingham derby a slightly warmer feeling.
Since the 1997/1998 campaign, the major derbies played in the last 10 games of the season have produced higher make-ups, averaging 61.4 points per game. The card count increases further when teams are close in the league and the average bookings points per game when the sides are separated by three or less points is 64.7. Interestingly though, if the hosts are at least five places higher than their rivals (Villa are currently 10 places higher than City) then the make up tends to be much less, with an average of 42.6 points per game.
If the first meeting of the season had relatively few cards (less than 45 points) the return games tend to have lower points again – averaging 42.9 per game and only six of 21 making it to 50 points. However, if they had 45 or more, the second matches have tended to have more cards as well – averaging 58 points per game (11/20 getting to 50 or more). There were exactly five bookings in the game at St Andrews in November which will please buyers at 56.
Buyers will take further encouragement by learning that games at Villa Park this season have had more make ups of at least 50 points than at any other Premier League ground. Over half (9/17) of the games there have seen 50 or more points. However, sellers at 52 will be much happier that only one of the last seven league matches at Villa Park has produced more then 30 points, with Villa’s home games against the bottom half averaging only 33 points per game (51 points versus the top half).
Despite all of this, the key factor is often the referee and the official in this one, Mark Clattenburg, averages the second highest number of bookings points in the league since the beginning of last season. His average of 44.4 points is only second to Mike Dean at 47.4. Buyers will also be interested to hear that two thirds of the Premier League Birmingham derbies have yielded at least 50 points (five of nine 60 or more).
Those who like to follow the recent results stat pattern in this derby will undoubtedly be buying Villa supremacy at 0.7, as the result of the first game between these two sides has always been repeated in the second in recent years. Two years ago, Villa did the double over Birmingham which was their first win over their rivals in the league since 1987. Two of the previous three seasons before that saw Birmingham doubles, whilst one season had two draws. Villa won 2-1 at St Andrews earlier in the season, so if the pattern is to continue they would have to win in this one.
Sellers of total goals at 2.5 will be alarmed that the Blues haven’t been involved in a game with fewer than 2 goals in their last 11 Premier League games. Villa’s last three games have also averaged a very large 4.66 goals per game. There is no respite for sellers of goals when you look at the games played between these two on the two grounds. Before this season, the past four meetings at St Andrews had only seen a miserly average of 1.5 goals per game, whilst the four at Villa Park had averaged 3.25.
Away from football and one of the final big jumps race of the season takes place at Ayr on Saturday. The Scottish National is run over 4m110yds and with Halcon Generlardais a definite runner, the majority of the field will be running from out of the handicap. Two top weights have won in the past 10 years, but the last three winners have all carried 10st 2lb or less. At this time of year the ground usually rides on the quicker side, but it’s looking like it’s going to be a rare heavy ground Scottish National. Sellers of SP’s will be alarmed that only one horse in the past seven years has won at single-figure odds. However, sellers of winning distances will be delighted that five of the last six winning distances have been ½ a length or less.
