25 April 2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
There’s only one game that matters at the top of the Premier League this weekend when Man United travel to Stamford Bridge. A victory for United would mean Chelsea would have to win their remaining two league games 9-0 and hope United lose their final two if they are to have any chance of lifting the trophy. However, sellers of Chelsea supremacy at 0 will be alarmed that United haven’t won at Stamford Bridge since 2002 and have failed to score in their last six visits. This game sandwiches huge Champions League semi-finals for both sides and Chelsea buyers at 0.2 will be hoping United’s recent poor away performances in the league continue in this one. Buyers will also be pleased by the intriguing stat that in the last three seasons (excluding games at Anfield) there have been only two away wins in 31 Big Four games (W19-D10-L2 for the home team, whilst United have won none, drawn three and lost two on the road during that period).
United dropped points at Ewood Park last week and sellers of the Blues’ supremacy will be worried that since the inception of the Premier League, Alex Ferguson’s side have only won two of the ten away games they’ve played against Big Four sides when dropping points the game before. Four of the last six Premier League games between these two have seen 2 goals or more, however buyers of total goals at 2.5 won’t be pleased that Chelsea have played 16 games at home against the Big Four since the start of the 2004/05 season and have only conceded twice – both to Arsenal.
This game is obviously very important for both sides and Chelsea must win if they are to stand any chance of wrestling back the title from their rivals. Those wanting to sell the time of the first Chelsea goal at 54 minutes will be pleased that in two of their past five games, they have scored in the first six minutes. Yet, buyers at 57 will also be pleased that they have only managed one half-time lead and only three first half goals in their last 16 Big Four games. The only time they led at the break was in last year’s semi-final first leg in the Champions League against Liverpool through Joe Cole and their only first half goal since then was against United in the Community Shield back in August. Malouda’s goal at Wembley was the first time United had conceded in the first half against the Big Four since the start of last season.
The game which will decide who wins the league (not including the Big Four) takes place at Goodison Park on Sunday when Aston Villa travel up to Merseyside. Everton are currently three points better off than Martin O’Neill’s side and buyers of Toffees supremacy at 0.4 will be concerned that since O’Neill has taken over, Villa have beaten Everton twice and drawn once, including a 1-0 victory at Goodison last year. Villa are flying of late and buyers of total goals at 2.5 will be hoping that their prolific goalscoring touch continues. They have now scored an astonishing 15 goals in their last three games. However, buyers should also be aware that Everton’s last nine games have all had 2 or fewer goals
The Spanish Grand Prix takes place in Barcelona on Sunday and those of you who like to punt winning distances will be interested to know that the Spanish Grand Prix holds the record for both the largest and shortest winning distance. In 1969, Jackie Stewart finished over two laps clear of Bruce McLaren, whilst in the 80’s heyday of motor racing Ayrton Senna beat Nigel Mansell by only 0.013secs in 1986. The Circuit de Catalunya course is well known to the F1 teams as they regularly test there in addition to the annual Grand Prix. The key phase of the track is coming into the last two corners, collectively known as New Holland, because if you don’t build up enough speed on exit it is easy to be overtaken on the long start-finish straight.
The winds can often play havoc on this circuit and tyre wear and tear is also a significant factor due to the bumpy, undulating track. Punters looking for the winner will often wait for the results of qualifying and if recent results are to go by, then the ability to handle the course pre-race is vital if you are to win. The last seven winners have all started from pole, underlining the importance of a good start and the difficulty drivers have overtaking at Barcelona.
The Bet365 Gold Cup, the last big staying handicap of the jumps season, takes place at Sandown on Saturday. Racing Demon looks like a definite starter, which means that – similarly to last weekend’s Scottish Grand National – a number of the runners will be running from out of the handicap. Buyers of SP’s will take heart from only one winning favourite in the past ten runnings, however there has only been one winner bigger than 16/1 in that time. Only two horses have won carrying 11st or higher in the past decade, whilst three have won off the bottom weight of 10st – including two of the past three winners.
