2 May 2008
Trading Talk - a sports trading preview 

Chelsea’s victory over United last Saturday flung open the title door once again and any slip up by either side in the remaining two fixtures will hand the title to their rivals. United have another early kick off to contend with on Saturday, when West Ham travel up to Old Trafford, whilst Chelsea must make the long trip up to St James’s Park on Monday evening. Buyers of United supremacy at 0.9 will be concerned that the Red Devils have lost their last three league games against the Hammers, all by a one-goal margin. They’ve also lost three of the last six contests between the sides at Old Trafford, each time by one goal to nil.

However, even though four of the last six meetings between these two sides have seen one goal or fewer, sellers of total goals at 2.3 should tread with caution. In the past decade, United have found their scoring boots against the Hammers at home and in the last nine games they have scored 3 twice and 4, 6 and 7 once. West Ham fans will be hoping for a repeat of last season’s final match when Carlos Tevez grabbed the only goal of the game. Sellers of United supremacy will also take encouragement from the Red Devils’ recent Premier League record immediately after a Champions League game. They have lost two and only won one of the last four league games played directly after a European tie.

Many punters will remember the fierce battles involving these two clubs which seemed to emanate from the transfer of Paul Ince in 1989. It may therefore surprise a few people that the last red card shown in a game between these two was back in 1995 – 23 contests ago. As always, much will depend on the referee, but sellers of bookings at 36 will be delighted to hear that the average make-up of the last four games between these two at Old Trafford is 15. At Upton Park, they tend to be slightly feistier, as the average in the last four there is 37.5

Three months ago, Avram Grant would have relished a trip to Newcastle, but the Magpies are rejuvenated of late and are now unbeaten in seven league games. Buyers of Chelsea supremacy at 0.3 will be concerned that Newcastle have won their last three home games, all by at least a 2-goal margin. They will be even more concerned when they learn that in the last five Premier League meetings between these two at St James’s, the Magpies have won three and drawn two.

The result of United’s game on Saturday will obviously have an impact on the way Chelsea approach this one, but even though there were three goals at Stamford Bridge when the sides met in December, buyers of total goals at 2.4 have every reason to be concerned in this game. Five of the last six games between the two have had 1 goal or fewer, whilst all of the last six games at St James’s have had 2 or less goals.

Arsenal will be praying that both the other teams slip up and that they can take advantage at home against Everton on Sunday. Buyers of Arsenal supremacy at 0.9 will be pleased to hear that in the last 20 years, Arsenal have won 85% of their home games against the Toffees and have only lost on one occasion since the inception of the Premier League. Sellers of Arsenal supremacy will be concerned that David Moyes has never had an away victory at a top six side and has lost 20 of the 31 they’ve played at teams in the top six.

The first two Classics of the season take place at Newmarket this weekend, as Europe’s top 3-year-old colts and fillies line up for the 2000 and 1000 Guineas respectively. Saturday is the turn of the males and buyers of SP’s will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s race in which 25/1 outsider Cockney Rebel scooped the prize. However, that was the biggest priced winner in the past ten years and the only double-figure priced winner in the past six. Sellers shouldn’t be overjoyed though, as George Washington, at 6/4 two years ago, was the only winning favourite in the past decade.  Aidan O’Brien has the best recent record, winning four of the last ten.