9 May 2008
Trading Talk - a sports trading preview 

Sunday sees the end of the Premier League season and Man United and Chelsea will be fighting it out for the title. Chelsea have the easier looking game at home to Bolton, whilst United will be hoping their former player Steve Bruce does them a favour when they travel to Wigan. Buyers of United supremacy at 1.4 will be delighted to hear that the Reds have won all six times they’ve played Wigan and have won by a margin bigger than 1 goal in five of the six. In the six games they’ve played, United average exactly 3 goals per game, whilst the Latics have only scored 3 goals. In-running punters will be interested to learn though that on the two previous games at the JJB between these sides, United had to come from behind to win.

Sellers of United supremacy at 1.2 will also be concerned that Steve Bruce’s record against Sir Alex Ferguson when manager of Birmingham reads – played 10; drawn two; lost eight. However, they will be happier when they look at Wigan’s recent form. They are unbeaten in five and have drawn against Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool since the start of the New Year. Player goal minutes punters have followed Cristiano Ronaldo religiously all season and even though he scored twice last weekend against West Ham, sellers at 32 will have been relieved that his minutes only made up 27. However, buyers will be licking their lips at his record against Wigan. In the four games he has started against the Latics, he has scored in each game and his goal minutes total has increased on each occasion (59, 74, 98 and 135 in November’s game).

Avram Grant will be hoping that his side can do the business against practically safe Bolton Wanderers, whilst Wigan manage to upset the Old Trafford applecart. Buyers of Chelsea supremacy at 1.8 should really be more confident if this game was taking place at the Reebok. The Blues have won their last five trips to Lancashire, but have only beaten Bolton once in the past four meetings between the two at Stamford Bridge, including a 2-1 defeat back in 2003. Chelsea buyers though will point to two of the last three wins over the Trotters at home ending up 5-1.

When you compare the total goals market in games between these two at the Reebok and at the Bridge, then goal buyers definitely have more to shout about in this one. The last five games in the North have seen 2 or fewer goals, whilst all of the past four meetings at Stamford Bridge have had 3 or more. In-running punters will again be interested to learn that Bolton have taken the lead in their last two visits to the Bridge.

For those interested in the other games in the Premier League then there are some intriguing stats in the last round of games, especially for total goals punters. In the last 15 years of the Premier League, the last round of games averages nearly three goals per match (2.98) when the league average for a game is 2.60. May, unsurprisingly when considering this, also leads the way in the monthly breakdown, averaging 2.81 goals per game (no other month averages above 2.68).

The trend comes even further to the fore when the final game of the season has two teams with nothing to play for (not challenging for the title, a European place, or trying to avoid relegation). This weekend, Sunderland v Arsenal, Tottenham v Liverpool and Middlesbrough v Man City are all such games and buyers of total goals at around 2.6 will be delighted to hear that games between teams with nothing to play for on the last day of the season average 3.14 goals per game - compared with 2.83 for those games involving teams that need a result. In fact, 63% of last day ‘no stake’ matches have featured at least 3 goals, as opposed to 52% for matches with something at stake.

Ferrari are looking fairly dominant in the Formula One world at present, having finished 1-2 in both of the last two races. Buyers of their constructor points will be hoping that the pattern continues in the Turkish Grand Prix at Istanbul Park this weekend. The track has only been on the calendar for three seasons, but its complex mix of slow corners, gradient changes and long straights make it one of the most testing racetracks on the F1 calendar. The already infamous multi-apex Turn Eight is the highlight of the cleverly designed track and provides the drivers with a real challenge.

Buyers of Felipe Massa at 94 in the drivers’ season points index should have no reason to worry about Istanbul Park though, as the Brazilian has won there both times he’s driven for Ferrari and registered his first ever career win there in 1996. That may have something to do with the circuit being one of only two tracks in the calendar that runs anti-clockwise (the other being his home track in Brazil). As in the last Grand Prix in Spain, pole position is all important in Turkey and the winner has always started from first on the grid in all three races here.