16 May 2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
The Premier League is over for another year, but before the historic all-English Champions League Final and Euro 2008 Championships; we have the traditional curtain closer to the English season on Saturday. Punters would have made hundreds, if not thousands, if they had correctly predicted that Portsmouth and Cardiff would have been lining up at Wembley for the FA Cup Final on Saturday 17th May. Sporting Index have Pompey as the 0.7-0.9 favourites and buyers at 0.9 will be hoping for a repeat of the last time the sides met when the South Coast outfit won 2-0 at Ninian Park in the fourth round of the League Cup back in 2004/2005. However, the last five times the sides have played have all been cup ties and Pompey and the Bluebirds have both won two apiece.
Buyers of Pompey supremacy will be hoping for an improvement in form, as Harry Redknapp’s side have now lost four in a row. Cardiff on the other hand ended the season in confident mood beating their semi-final opponents Barnsley 3-0 on the last day of the season. Pompey buyers will be pleased to hear that since the Premier League began, there have been 63 neutral matches in the two major domestic competitions. The teams lower in the league, or in a lower league, won four of the first five such games, but only 11 of 58 since, with the superior team winning 34 and only losing 9 in that time. This is even more prevalent in the FA Cup specifically, as the team in the superior league position has won 38 of 47 neutral ties.
Portsmouth have found it very difficult to hit the net in recent weeks and have only managed to score twice in the past six games, which will give sellers of total goals at 2.4 encouragement. In fact, their goal ratio in the FA Cup has also been low and the six goals they’ve scored on route to the final is the lowest since the Premier League started (Arsenal scored seven in 1998). In the Premier League era just over 40% (28/69) of neutral cup ties have produced three or more goals and over a third (25/69) have had one or none in 90 minutes. It is even more applicable in the FA Cup with just 37% (19/52) of neutral matches seeing more than two goals and 40% (21/52) ending with no more than one. Buyers of total goals at 2.6 will be boosted by Cardiff’s final five league games though, as they averaged just over 4 goals per game.
Buyers of goals won’t be happy that finals are even lower scoring than regular FA Cup ties. Only four of the last 16 FA Cup finals (including one replay) have seen three goals or more – and only five of 22 over the last 20 years. The presence of a lower league team does not appear to make much difference either. Since 1992/1993, the majority (10/17) of matches at neutral venues involving teams from outside the top flight have resulted in two goals or fewer – nearly half the matches (8/17) ending with one goal or none at all.
The Champions League Final is only five days away and it is difficult to way up the key betting options at this stage, but there are some useful stats to focus on for the first ever all-English Champions League Final. Whatever happens between Man United and Chelsea, England will become the equal most successful nation in European Cup / Champions League history with 11 wins, alongside Italy and Spain. There will be plenty of punters interested in the total goals market in this game and buyers of goals at 2.5 will be concerned that only one of the last six meetings between these two has seen more than 2 goals (that was only last month at Stamford Bridge). However, they will be much more pleased when they hear that five of the last six and seven of the last nine Champions League Finals have contained at least three goals.
There have only ever been two ‘one country’ finals in the history of the European Cup and they have both been in the last eight years. AC Milan v Juventus was settled on penalties after a goal-less draw, whilst Madrid beat Valencia 3-0 in 2000. Sellers of United supremacy at 0.1 will be hoping Chelsea can continue their recent positive run against the Red Devils. In the past 12 games between the clubs they have won six, compared with only two victories for United. However, the sides have never met in Europe before.
The biggest racing action of the weekend is the Group 1 Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. Buyers of SP’s will be concerned that no horse has won this race from a double-figure starting price in the past nine years. Sellers will also be delighted to hear that three of the past five winners have gone off favourite. The most likely market leaders in this year’s race, Cesare and Haradasun, are 7 and 5-year-olds respectively and favourite backers will be concerned that seven of the last 10 winners of the race have been 4-year-olds.
