31 May 2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
30/05/2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
England play Trinidad for only the second time in their history on Sunday and the second time in the space of two years. Buyers of English supremacy at 1.8 will be hoping for at least a repeat of the 2-0 win at the World Cup in Germany. Sellers at 1.6 will be pleased to hear that Trinidad have won three and drawn one of the last four home games, but may be slightly worried that these have come against the likes of El Salvador, Guatemala and St Vincent & Grenadines. England meanwhile haven’t been too strong on their travels of late and have lost two of their last three on the road. Sellers of the time of the first England goal at 36 minutes will be concerned that it took 83 minutes to break the deadlock against the Trinidadians at the World Cup.
The other significant friendly for British sports fans this weekend is Wales’ trip to Holland to take on the orange army. The Welsh have played the Dutch five times in their history and have lost all five. In fact, buyers of Dutch supremacy at 1.4 will be delighted to hear that Holland have scored an astonishing 14 goals the last three times they’ve met Wales. The last game was a 7-1 drubbing in Eindhoven in 1996, which saw goals from Denis Bergkamp and both of the de Boer brothers. This is in addition to the Dutch scoring 10 goals in their past three games, so sellers of total goals at 2.5 will definitely be concerned. However, Wales are unbeaten in six and have won their last three games against Norway, Luxembourg and Iceland, scoring six and conceding none.
Two of the biggest rivals in English rugby meet at Twickenham on Saturday for the Guinness Premiership Championship Final. Sporting Index can’t split them at present so buyers of either side’s supremacy at 1 will be hoping for any kind of victory. The last time these two sides met, in what was then the Zurich Premiership Final, was back in 2005 and Wasps registered their third consecutive Zurich trophy with a 39-14 win. However, the Tigers have been in all of the last three finals, losing the first two against Wasps and Sale Sharks, but trouncing Gloucester 44-16 last year.
These two sides have met three times this season, with the Tigers holding the slight edge of two wins to the Wasps’ one. However, all three games have been very tight and the winning margin has been no bigger than 10 in all three games. As always with these big games, tactics are often based around the weather conditions and buyers of total points at 46 will be pleased to hear that the Tigers last four Premiership games have averaged 52.25 points, whilst Wasps have averaged 50.25. This is further boosted by the last three finals averaging a total of 59.3 points. However, sellers at 43 will be hoping to see a final similar to 2004 when Wasps beat Bath 10-6. In fact, the average points total for the three finals prior to 2005 was 36.3.
This column will be focusing on Euro 2008 next week, so we’ll start to take a look at the French Open this week. Firstly, the men’s singles, and punters who have bought Rafael Nadal in the outright index will be hoping the Spanish superstar can make it four French Opens in a row. He would be the first player to achieve this since Bjorn Borg completed his fourth straight victory in 1981. The French Open is the most important major of the year for most Spanish and South American players and it is incredible that 10 of the last 11 winners have come from Spain, Argentina and Brazil.
Roger Federer is desperate to achieve what Pete Sampras couldn’t and win all four majors, but he has been beaten by his old adversary Nadal in four sets the last two years. Punters who like to buy total games in the final will be interested to learn that only one of the last nine finals has been settled in straight sets. However, sellers of total games will also take heart that there are regularly very one-sided sets. The opening set in four of the last six finals has either finished 6-0 or 6-1, whilst there have only been two tie-breaks in the last six finals.
If Nadal is the male darling of Roland Garros, then Justine Henin was undoubtedly the female equivalent. Before retiring earlier this month, she had also won three straight French Opens and four in total. Monica Seles was the last winner of three straight French titles, but this year there will be a new name on the trophy. Whilst the men’s tournament hasn’t seen many straight set victories in recent years, the women’s competition is completely different, which will please sellers of total games in the final. Seven of the past eight finals have been won in straight sets and in four of the last five, the runner-up only managed to register four games or fewer. However, sellers are advised to tread carefully as you only have to go back to 2001 when Jennifer Capriati beat Kim Clijsters 1-6, 6-4, 12-10!
