1 June 2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
1/06/2008 Trading Talk - a sports trading preview
England won’t be there, but sixteen other national sides will be competing for the European Championship crown over the next few weeks. It all gets underway in Basel this Saturday when Switzerland take on the Czech Republic and will end 22 days later on Sunday 29th June in Vienna. Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and France seem to be, as always, the names on every shortlist. However, they were four years ago in Portugal when Greece pulled off one of the biggest sporting upsets of all time. The current Champions were virtually the rank outsiders in Sporting Index’s pre-tournament book and were even massive underdogs on the night of the final. The rest, as they say, is history.
Sporting Index have opened a ‘100 index’ on the event where they award 100 points to the eventual winner, 75 points to the runner-up, 50 points to each losing semi-finalist, 25 points to all losing quarter-finalists and nothing to the remainder. Germany head the market at the time of writing and they can be bought on the index at 50 points – yet, buyers will only make a profit if they contest the final. Spain can be bought at 41pts, Italy at 39pts, France at 36pts and Holland at 26pts. Greece are once again outsiders and they can be bought at 18pts meaning that even a losing quarter-final finish will yield a 7 point profit for buyers.
Looking at the Group stages in more detail and Portugal are hot favourites to win Group A. Sporting Index are offering an index on each of the four groups and allocate 25 points to the winner, 10 points to the runner-up, 5 points to the side who misses out in third and 0 points to the nation that finishes bottom. It is not hard to see why buyers of Portugal, a side that contains the likes of Ronaldo, Nani and Deco, have to pay 14.5 points. However, they will have to see off a talented Czech Republic side (9.5 – 11 on the Group A index), not to mention Switzerland. As co-hosts of the tournament, the Swiss may well come in for support and can be bought at 10 points. It’s worth remembering how well they performed at the World Cup two years ago when they became the first side ever to be sent home at the quarter-final stage (on penalties) without conceding a goal.
Germany are red-hot favourites to win Group B and can be bought at 18.5 points on the 25/10/5 index. Sporting Index reckon that they are most likely to progress to the knockout stages with Croatia who are pitched at 10-11.5 points. Poland are expected to pip Austria for third place. However, the most interesting of the four groups is without doubt Group C – already labelled the ‘Group of Death’. The Group features both finalists from the last World Cup, not to mention Holland. Sporting Index expect current World Champions Italy to advance as group winners and have pitched their spread at 12.5-14 points. France are next best at 11.5-13 points with Holland next best at 9-10.5 points. There will no doubt be plenty of sellers of Romania at 3.5 points as they have been widely tipped to finish bottom.
The last of the Groups sees Spain paired with Sweden, Russia and reigning Champions Greece. Buyers of the Spanish at 17 will be hoping that the likes of Fabregas, Xavi, Torres and Villa can at last deliver the goods for a side that has consistently under achieved on the World stage. Sporting Index’s prices would suggest that they expect Sweden to qualify as runner-up with Greece edging out Russia for the wooden spoon.
If you are finding it too difficult to single out individual winners and losers, then you may well be interested in the hundreds of ‘totals’ markets Sporting Index have on offer. The company have served up predictions on everything from the total goals scored in the 31 game tournament, right the way through to total number of missed penalties. There were exactly 74 goals scored in Portugal four years ago and all those who felt that was a high scoring contest will be licking their lips at the chance to sell at that exact figure with Sporting Index this time round. However, buyers at 75.5 will take heart from the fact that Euro 2000 yielded 83 goals.
There were 147 yellow cards shown in Euro 2004 and the current spread of 140-147 suggests that the traders are expecting more of the same. Interestingly, there were only six reds issued last time and buyers at 8.5 will be expecting a far dirtier tournament this time. Sporting Index are well known for their novelty wagers and are once again offering their ‘Dodgy Keepers’ market which is a prediction on the number of times the goalkeepers punch the ball throughout the tournament. The current spread is 48-52 which is higher that the make-up in 2004 of 43. Buyers at 52 are obviously expecting the light balls and rumoured movement to cause a nightmare for all keepers.
The presence of Cristiano Ronaldo in the tournament will encourage buyers of the ‘Belly Flops’ market which is a prediction of the number of players booked for simulation. Buyers at 7.5 will be hoping for more than the six issued last time round. Other markets that catch the eye include total own goals which are pitched at 2-2.2 and total corners (318-325) which are expected to be a lot lower than the 351 taken at Euro 2004. For all those who like a really volatile bet, total fouls in the tournament can be sold at 11000 or bought at 11040. Buyers at that figure four years ago would have made exactly a 1 point profit. Sellers of ‘Shocking Decision Ref’ (number of times the ball goes into the net during the tournament and no goal is given) at 12.5 will be hoping for a similar make-up to last time when it happened just the six times.
