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Today on ShareCrazy.com we bring an exclusive extract from the diary of infamous bear raider, Evil Knievil taken from his popular thrice-weekly column on t1ps.com...

2nd May 2008:

I suppose people feel cheered that Brown is starting to gets his comeuppance, albeit that there will be a serious delay before he has the good grace to go. Further, as I write, that twister Livingstone is on his way too. So, although it is not true to say that all is well with the world, it is undeniably weller.

Quite why Pursuit Dynamics (PDX) has taken so long to sober up, goodness only knows. But the bid keeps melting and it is reasonable to assume that stop losses have now been irretrievably triggered. Now 194p bid, keep selling down to 100p first stop.

Capital and Regional (CAL) may be in breach of its banking covenants, if not right now, then imminently in the eyes of its rattled bankers. Well this is what I hear anyway. I very much doubt that 370p is the bottom. It has got a lot of shopping malls, possibly the most boring assembly areas known to man. They'll prove difficult to shift.

I have received assistance as to the nature of Admiral's (ADM) ancillary income. I am told that besides buying car cover from Admiral, its customers also buy lots of other services and insurance cover offered on the same site by third parties. Admiral takes commission income on such sales. However, the scale is massive and I reckon that inevitably the competition will take this grand booty away. In view of the rise in recent days through a kinder reception from major brokers, the wise are offered yet another selling opportunity, this time at 890p. Apparently, confused.com makes perhaps £35m p.a. and Admiral has turned down £600m for it. Admiral must fear cannibalisation. I don't blame 'em.

I thought I would pass on some notes on branding, a subject which is little understood by some – as will be clear.

Not so long ago, a successful businessman declared to me that Britain has had its brand destroyed in just eight years by Blair. I do not know what he meant or, indeed, what he might mean. Do you? If so, please advise. Well, if one tolerably intelligent fellow hasn’t a clue, you will please forgive me if I disclose that my own ignorance is also in point.

For instance, over the weekend, I noted a photograph of the old Duchess of Windsor wearing a Givenchy dress to a social gathering and confronting another lady in exactly the same dress. My wife says that the Duchess must have been discomforted. I then countered “But why is it that people buy Burberry clothes knowing full well that they may encounter others identically attired?” “Ah,” she said, “whereas the Duchess thought she had bought exclusivity, the Burberry shopper thinks she has bought into a club.” If she is right, there is clearly a cut off, a point where a purchase of exclusivity merges into a club. Not easy, brand management.

There seems to be a lot of sense in building a large business with branches everywhere since a winning formula can be replicated economically and a standard identified in the consuming public’s mind. Globalisation is the natural consequence of such a successful business.

You might therefore imagine that Tesco would constitute the peak of commercial achievement. But, blow me down, it is now encountering flak. For shoppers who are otherwise entirely rational declare themselves opposed to Tesco. I can only suppose that the true fear is of overwhelming success while the declared fear is of garish and ubiquitous advertising. Poor old Tesco.

However, I now learn that Starbucks (SBX) has turned down. This boring company is disliked by some because it is globalised. But, my straw poll tells me that coffee slurpers think the product too dear and too low a quality. Since the emergence of such a problem could always have been readily measured and dealt with – where, of course, it can and could be dealt with – there may be a more fundamental problem. I am not sure what it is but I have sold SBX at $16.80.

Frontera (FRR) has popped up with some minor but cheering news. I won’t buy any more since I am up to the eyeballs with the stock. But, for newcomers, 100p looks pretty cheap to me. For the downside is starting to look much more limited – where I had previously regarded the investment as a heads or tails job. The upside remains £10 or £20. Who knows. Nobody yet.

I was not there at the death of Vanco (VAN). But it is naturally pleasing that the long term assessment has proved correct.

Yours sincerely

Evil's idiot Diarist

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