|
International Consolidated Minerals— Initiation of coverage with a Buy
recommendation at 285p and a target price of 725p

|
 |
|
Key Data
|
| |
EPIC |
ICMI |
| |
Share Price |
285p |
| |
Spread |
270p-300p |
| |
Total no of shares |
37.68 million (Warrants outstanding 10.576 million) |
| |
Market Cap |
£107.39 million |
| |
12 Month Range |
277.6p-378.2p |
| |
Market |
AIM |
| |
Website |
www.icmplc.com |
| |
Sector |
Mining |
| |
Contact |
Greg Smith, Executive Chairman 0771 7880 923 |
| |
Net cash reserves |
£9 Million |
International Consolidated Minerals
(ICM) is an AIM-listed, Cayman Island incorporated, pre-production
mining company, currently developing a copper/lead/zinc/silver mine
at the Pachapaqui polymetalic mining property in Peru. Since the
acquisition of the Pachapaqui asset in December 2005, the company
delayed operations in favour of a reconstruction and rehabilitation
process on selected parts of the property concessions, which include
an existing mine, an 800 tons per day concentrator and an attractive
infrastructure with access to water, main road, power supply and
other related infrastructure.
During this time, ICM has
renovated and upgraded the existing mill, relocated the tailings
dam, undertook the necessary exercise of settling previous
operators’ debts and engaged in an extensive 2007 drilling program
with encouraging results. The company now is in a strong position
for an initial 1,500tpd operation with a gradual rump up to a
production rate of at least 4,000tpd per annum by early 2012.
ICM is currently in an advanced stage
of the permitting processes for the 1,500 tpd operation in
conjunction with the addition of a new ball mill and an expansion to
the flotation circuit. The 2007 drilling program results, based on
only 25 of the 59 diamond drill holes completed, indicate a 15Mt
resource, an estimate which is scheduled to be upgraded to JORC
compliant status by mid 2008. The exploration potential is very
impressive with the prospect of doubling this estimated resource
when the results of all 59 holes are returned. This is in addition
to the existing 4.2Mt proven and probable ore reserves of the
Pachapaqui Mine.
An enlarged upgraded resource is
expected to provide the basis for the new concentrator scheduled to
be built during a 2-year period starting in early 2010. As we go to
print, the company has yesterday announced a new gold bearing
discovery from a breccia pipe and copper & zinc discoveries,
bringing a substantial increase in the value of the reserves of the
company. The summary data on the gold bearing potential from the
breccia pipe is not reflected however in the content and valuation
of this report.
In early 2007, the company undertook an
extensive exploration drilling programme around the Mantos area, one
of the four main areas, each containing multiple zones and veins.
The programme’s objective was to improve the quality category and
quantity of resources within the Mantos area of the mining
concessions. Just about half of the drill holes results (25 of 59
diamond drill holes) from the Mantos Zone justified ICM strategic
pursuit of a longer term expansion programme which provides greater
rewards for the company’s investors. The encouraging results raise
the real prospect of bringing this attractive 100% owned asset back
to the forefront of the market’s attention and one of the most
notable assets in view of going re-starting production late
2008/early 2009.
The Pachapaqui Mine should have a nine
year mine-life in this, its second incarnation. It operated
continuously for a period of 13 years between 1981 and 1994 and
still has a JORC-compliant resource/reserve base, with much of the
mineralization on site remaining open along strike and down-dip,
raising the upside potential for increased production capacity or a
longer mine life. The Pachapaqui mine was put back in production in
1997 by a Canadian private company, but never resumed the production
levels of 500-650 tpd during the 1980s.
ICM remains fully-funded with an
estimated net cash position of US$18 million, having already spent
in the region of US$7 million on drilling exploration to date. We
expect the Pachapaqui exploration and expansion programme to
continue well into the year, so we expect most of the remaining cash
resources to go towards financing the development plan to start
mining operations. The next phase, which would require a capital
expenditure in the region of US$50-60 million, would see the
undertaking and completion of a new environmental impact study (EIS)
and the rump up mining operations to a proposed new 4,000-4,500 tpd
facility by 2012.
This capital requirement is expected
to be forthcoming from the exercise of 9.935 million original PDM
warrants issued with an exercise price of US$6 per warrant, which
could bring an additional $60 million. In addition, around half a
million original PDM options, if exercised at US$8 each, could bring
in an extra US$4.22 million. Add to this another US$5 million that
could be raised from the exercise of 641,308 ICM warrants at an
exercise price of US$8 per warrant, a sum of US$70 million could be
available to finance the development of the project. As a result,
the company may not need to go the market for another fundraising or
consider taking on debt.
Our sum of parts basis comes to US$745
million or $14.5 per ICM share on a fully diluted basis. We believe
that the company is now in a much stronger financial and significant
leverage upside resulting from improved projects economics, active
management towards bringing Pachapaqui into production, improved
quality and quantity of Resources and Reserves, plus considerable
exploration potential. We recognize that ICM faces considerable
risks in bringing the Pachapaqui Mine into production, which we have
attempted to reflect in our valuation. However ICM is fully funded
and its management team has significant relevant experience gained
holding senior positions in other listed companies. At 285p, we
initiate our coverage of ICM with a buy
recommendation and a target price of 725p.
Forecast Table
Year to 31st December |
Sales
($million) |
Pre-Tax Profits
($million) |
Basic Earnings Per Share ($) |
2007A |
0.00 |
(6.50) |
(0.17) |
2008E |
5.88 |
(3.17) |
(0.14) |
2009E |
6.82 |
(3.03) |
(0.96) |
20010E |
113.65 |
82.35 |
1.03 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Background |
 |
 |
Company Background
ICM was formed in September 2005 with the
objective of acquiring and pursuing the exploration, development, and
production of mineral resources in Latin America. The company’s focus
was in Peru, which was used as a springboard by the company to pursue
and enhance the value of additional mining assets throughout Latin
America, either through acquisition, exploration and development. Lead
by the experienced Greg Smith, who is currently the executive chairman
of AIM-listed PetroLatina, ICM’ strategy is to secure high quality
mining assets at an advanced stage of development and bring them into
production as quickly and as efficiently, for all stakeholders involved,
as possible.

Source: ICMI - Peru and its Main Mines |
In December 2005, ICM acquired
100% ownership of 32 mining concessions and one beneficial concession in
Peru from HIRI. The acreage covered 2,170 hectares. The consideration
for the transfer of rights and shares in the concessions plus related
assets was $26 million, which was met through the issuance of 23.5
million ICM ordinary shares, a cash payment of $4 million plus three
million warrants. The main attraction among the mining concessions was
the non-operating Pachapaqui Mine, which was on ‘care and maintenance’
status at the time and came with an on-site concentrator. The
acquisition was funded through a $25 million convertible loan note issue
through the then AIM-listed Taghmen Energy (now reversed into
PetroLatina) fund. A further $6 million in two equity tranches was
raised in January and July 2006 to fund the construction of a mill to
bring the on-site concentrator into working condition.
Asset Background
The Pachapaqui mine was built in the
early 1980s and Minera Pachapaqui SAS was formed following the
acquisition of the mining concessions by a Peruvian family-run business
(Ganuza family) in 1971. A concentrator, built on site in 1981,
processed 1.6 million tonnes of concentrator feed tonnes over the next
13 years of mining operations at an average rate of 500-650 tpd, until
it was shut down in early 1990s due to a variety of reasons, including
increased guerrilla activity in the region; low metal prices; unhelpful
government policies, and lack of corporate financial resources.
The mine was subsequently nationalized, but in 1995 it was
denationalized and was soon taken over by the Babcock Consulting Ltd
(BCL), Sucarsel del Peru and Minera Aquia SA, which consolidated the
reserve base as Plata Peru Resources and listed it on the Toronto Stock
Exchange (TSX). Following a limited refurbishment of the on-site
concentrator, mine production recommenced in the same year, albeit on a
much reduced scale of some 50 tpd until it was placed on a care and
maintenance programme. Reasons for the mine never meeting its potential
or staying true to its early promise had less to do with the quality of
asset but more with poor quality of management. An amalgamation of
unsatisfactory mining and operating methods, lack of financial
resources, the presence of unsettled debts, an unhappy Peruvian mining
workforce, and an increasingly nervous local community, culminated in
jeopardizing the potential success of the Pachapaqui mine.
Since the acquisition of the Pachapaqui asset, ICM has engaged in a
programme of settling previous debts, rehabilitating selected areas of
the mine (including work on upgrading the on-site concentrator and
updating the mine infrastructure), winning back the trust of the mining
community, and engaging local and regional parties to the prospect of
restarting mining operations under the promise of a better economic
future for the parties involved. The Pachapacqui asset is located within
the department of Ancash, approximately 240 kilometres north of
Lima, and within the central mineral belt (Miocene metallogenic province
of Central Peru) operating intermittently at a reduced rate of 50 tonnes
per day (tpd).
ICM’s initial plan was to bring the asset
immediately back into operation, which lead to the company preparing for
a public offering of its shares on the AIM market during 2006. However,
the company concluded that it would make much more economic sense if it
worked towards extending the economic viability of the Pachapaqui asset
and expanding its development programme towards numerous target areas of
mineralization within the property. This is an asset with a substantial
drilling and other geological data from past exploration, consisting of
32 mining concessions and 1 beneficiation concession totaling 2,170
hectares. Included in the property is an 800 tpd milling and
concentrator complex, associated infrastructure, such as housing, roads,
electrical distribution, and two hydroelectric generating stations
capable of producing up to 2,500 KVA of electricity. This related
infrastructure required some capital investment from the company towards
rehabilitation and upgrading. Other road access and power infrastructure
includes a first class highway running 370 kilometres to Lima and its
port facilities
Consequently, ICM postponed its IPO on
AIM in favour of pursuing a long term drilling and development programme
with the objective of raising and upgrading (to JORC compliant status)
the Pachapaqui reserves and expanding the economic parameters of the
asset. This culminated to the company raising $10 million in a private
fundraising and, in September 2007, ICM completed the reverse
acquisition of an AIM listed SPAC (special purpose acquisition company)
named Platinum Diversified Mining Plc, a Cayman Islands incorporated
‘exempt’ company since January 2006.
Platinum Diversified—SPAC Vehicle
Reverse Acquisition
Platinum Diversified was formed in
January 2006 by its founders—Mark Nordlichjt, Bobby Cooper, Thomas
Loucks, John Ryan and Howard Crosby—as a mining investment vehicle.
Subsequent to its formation, Platinum was admitted to AIM in March 2006
as a special purpose acquisition vehicle (SPAC) for investing in the
metals and mining industry through asset acquisition. At the time of its
AIM listing, the company raised $77.9 million net of expenses via the
placing of 9.935 million units at $8.0 per unit with institutional
investors. The company was structured to offer investors choice and
flexibility and earmarked approximately $79.5 million in gross funding
to fund acquisitions and costs. One of the terms of its structural
overview was that Platinum would be liquidated if there was no
acquisition within 18 months of its listing, and any acquisition
required at least 80% shareholder approval. As part of the reverse
takeover, PDM shareholders retained the right to redeem some of their
investment as long as the requirement for the enlarged company to retain
unrestricted minimum cash reserves of $40 million ($34.44 million net of
expenses) for working capital purposes following the conditional
exercise of the conversion and redemption rights mentioned above. This
capital cushion has allowed ICM to proceed with funding the extensive
long range drilling and exploration programme at the Pachapaqui Mine.
|
|
|
Review of Operations |
 |
 |
The Pachapaqui mine is located in the
central mineral belt of Peru, formed during the Miocene period, and host
to some of the world’s most important and largest mines, such as
Antamina, Pierina, Atacocha Milpo, Cerro De Pasco, Morococha, and
Millotingo. The Antamina asset is the world’s largest copper-zinc mine
and the third largest mine in the world, with an estimated 559 million
tons of reserves. The mineral rich belt of central Peru has attracted
majors such as BHP Billiton, Xstrata, Rio Tinto, Tek Cominco, Newmont,
Barrick, and Estrada. Mining has proved the catalyst behind Peru’s
economic growth, with metals and minerals making up to 50% of the
country’s exports.

Source: ICMI- Map
of Central Peru showing world class assets in relation to
Pachapaqui location |
The January 2008 results are consistent
with historical data and, along with recent drilling results (over the
past12 months), they have validated the quality and extent of
mineralization zone patterns in some of the project areas. ICM has most
of the licences and permits in place to start a 1,500 tpd mine. The
Pachapaqui mine has around 4Mt of proven reserves but the recent
drilling results to date (25 diamond drill holes on the Mantos Zone)
indicate at least 15 Mt gross of in-situ mineralization in the Mantos
area. The potential for establishing an increased Resource and Reserves
base over time at Pachapaqui property cannot be underestimated. With 32
mining and one beneficiation concession totaling 2,170 hectares,
containing 59 known poly-metallic (Ag, Pb, Zn & Cu) mineralized
structures, and four distinct mining areas (Riqueza, Mantos, Arabia and
San Antonio), the Pachapaqui asset is already an attractive mining
property. To that, one must add the several mineralized zones with
excellent exploration potential and an unrealized reserves growth rate
from unexplored areas, which are situated in a location hosting some of
the largest mines in the world (Cerro de Pasco, Antamina and Milpo
Atacocha).

Source: ICMI Pachapaqui Mining and Beneficiation
Concessions |
Geology and Mineralisation
The central mineral belt of Peru is
largely underlain by Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, with local intrusive
igneous stocks of early Tertiary age. The Pachapaqui mine is located
within the Cordillera Huayhuash mountain range in the district of Aquia
in the province of Bolognesi, a department of Ancash in Peru. The mine,
along with the nearby Huanzala and the Uchucchacua mines are among the
most famous producers in Peru. All three mines are located near the
crest of the Cordillera Blanca mountain range on the southern end, some
250 kilometres north of the capital Lima and 50 kilometres east of the
Pacific coast. The well known mines at Cero de Pasco, Antamina, and
Milpo Atacocha, have produced 1.65 million tonnes of concentrator feed
between 1991 and 1994 at an average grade of 9.9 oz per tonne silver,
2.1% lead and 3.02% zinc.

Source: ICMI Pachapaqui Property geology with
substantial showings of veins, skarns and breccias. |
According to CSA’s competent persons
report (updated August 2007), the Pachapaqui mining properties have,
between 1981 and1994, produced approximately 13.1 million oz of silver,
29,816 dry metric tonnes (DMT) of lead metal, 45,463 DMT of zinc metal
and 6,618 DMT of copper metal in a bulk mineral concentrate, before
treatment losses or deductions. There are several mining areas within
the concessions accessible by adits of which Arabia, Mantos and Riqueza
are the largest and are expected to supply the bulk of the mine’s future
ore.
Two related mineral deposit types can be
mined at Pachapaqui: vein breccias and breccia pipes, as well as
elongated tabular bodies known as mantos. Overall deposits generally
range from 10-13 million tonnes of ore, while the larger ones can be
more than 50 million tonnes in size. Average grades typically range from
2-12% lead; 2-18% zinc; 2-20 oz/t silver; 2% copper from trace, and 6g/t
gold from trace. Individual ore zones that have been mined in the past
range from 200-500 metres high, 20-100 metres long, and 0.8-15 metres
wide. There is further potential to increase the economic mineralization
as the ore zones remain open at depth.
Some 59 mineralized structures have been
identified at the Pachapaqui mine, including veins, vein breccias,
chimneys, and mantos within the limestone, fine-grained sediment and
calc silicate rocks. Since early 2007, an extensive drilling and
exploration campaign has commenced primarily in and around only a small
portion of the Pachapaqui property, a mineralized zone known as the
Mantos zone. The January 2008 drilling results indicate at least 15
million gross tonnes of in-situ mineralization just in the Mantos area.
There are four distinct mining areas, namely Riqueza, Mantos, Arabia and
San Antonio. Each area contains several high potential prospects and
discoveries, with each zone hosting several mineralized veins. The
impetus for the company now is to prioritize its drilling targets and
press ahead of releasing a JORC compliant resource estimate in Q2 of
2008. Admittedly, the company’s drilling progress has been delayed by
the analytical labs long waiting lists, with only 25 (over 5,700 metres)
of the successfully 59 diamond drill holes (over 14,000 metres) drilled
and logged in the Mantos area to the middle of December 2007.
The drilling programme has included
surface mapping, trenching, diamond drilling, logging, sampling, and
assaying at an independent laboratory in Peru. Preliminary results from
the first 25 holes are listed in the table below, which indicate in-situ
mineralization in the order of 15 million gross tonnes just in the focus
area. The metals grades are reasonably consistent with the ore grades
contained in the existing proven and probable ore reserves for the
Mantos area (2.2 million tonnes at 4.42 oz/t Ag, 2.40% Pb, 4.87% Zn, and
0.63% Cu). The focus of the remainder current exploration
programme will be an additional 1,700 metres of drilling and 400 metres
of tunneling by the end of March 2008. Furthermore, preliminary test
drilling of 1,200 metres will be undertaken in adjacent areas to Mantos
to assess the mineralization in these areas.
|
Assays Results to 15 Dec 07 (25 out of 59 holes) |
|
|
|
Inters'ns |
Avg Width |
Average Grades |
|
|
Vein |
Au |
Ag |
Pb |
Zn |
Cu |
|
|
|
No. |
(m) |
g/tne |
oz/tne |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Esperanza |
18 |
6.4 |
0.25 |
2.93 |
1.57 |
3.70 |
0.44 |
|
|
Intermedio |
19 |
3.3 |
0.24 |
3.34 |
1.18 |
2.31 |
0.34 |
|
|
Matter |
23 |
6.6 |
0.13 |
8.94 |
1.68 |
3.61 |
0.39 |
|
|
Amelia's |
23 |
7.5 |
0.33 |
4.73 |
1.73 |
3.43 |
0.71 |
|
|
Total |
83 |
23.7 |
0.24 |
5.41 |
1.61 |
3.41 |
0.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
These holes are drilled in attempts to define the boundaries of the
veins of the Mantos area, and may not be representative of the
entire Mantos area veins. (Source: ICMI Ltd) |
|
Pachapaqui Mine Permits, Reserves
and Resources
An independent CNI 43-101 quality report was conducted in January 2006
(revised in December 2006) and an independent competent person’s report
was completed by CSA Consulting International Ltd (CSA) in June 2006,
which subsequently was updated in August 2007 in line with ICM’s
Admission Document.
Previous estimates by the company in 2006
forecast that the mine would be producing at around 12 million oz of
silver equivalent per annum, with a daily peak production rate of 1,000
tonnes per day for the next nine years. The capital costs of re-opening
the mine and sustaining operations over a nine year term could be around
$35-$40 million, which will include construction of a mill, power
supply, improvement of infrastructure, with the remainder covering
working capital requirements and financing costs. According to ICM’s
estimates, an operating cost of around $45.44 per tonne of mill feed ore
could be achieved over a nine year production term using modern mining
techniques. The operating cost per ton of ore mined is expected to
improve as the new mill is built, leaving the company a respectable
margin over an expected revenue of $200 per ton of ore mined.
There are approximately 190 people
working on the project but this is expected to fall to around 155 over
the next 18 months as the mine moves from its development phase and into
production. ICM has initiated several community projects and has been
actively involved with the local community, which owns the land surface
rights of the mine, and these efforts were rewarded with the signing of
a 10-year land surface use agreement in July 2006.
Following the acquisition and the earmark
of a respectable amount of funding in place, the company has proceeded
with its 18-month mine development. The company has already submitted an
updated 1500 tpd EIA for approval to the authorities, and according to
company sources, almost all relevant permits and authorizations have
been obtained, with the exception of the water permit, to allow the mine
to operate at 1,500 tpd. An environmental impact assessment (EIA) study
for a 1,500 tpd mining operation is expected to be commissioned in the
nearby future to replace the existing 1997 EIA for a 450 tpd mining
operation.
CSA has produced a detailed description
of Pachapaqui’s mining properties, requirements for re-opening of the
mine plus comment and financial analysis of the commercial viability and
technical feasibility of the project. The Pachapaqui concessions contain
ore reserves and resources (see tables shown below) that can support a
minimum nine year mining operation at a production rate of 1,000 tpd.
Table 1: JORC-compliant Measured and Indicated Resources in the
Pachapaqui mining area |
|
Category |
|
|
Tonnages |
Silver (Ag) |
Lead (Pb) |
Zinc (Zn) |
Copper (Cu) |
|
|
|
(million tonnes) |
(oz/t) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
Measured |
|
|
3.61 |
5.46 |
2.55 |
4.19 |
0.65 |
Indicated |
|
|
2.14 |
6.01 |
2.94 |
4.79 |
0.72 |
Total |
|
|
5.75 |
5.66 |
2.70 |
4.41 |
0.67 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: International Consolidated Minerals Ltd |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2: JORC-compliant Reserves in the Pachapaqui mining area |
|
|
|
Category |
|
|
Tonnages |
Silver (Ag) |
Lead (Pb) |
Zinc (Zn) |
Copper (Cu) |
|
|
|
(million tonnes) |
(oz/t) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
Proven |
|
|
2.90 |
5.47 |
2.51 |
4.17 |
0.72 |
Probable |
|
|
1.12 |
6.07 |
2.92 |
4.78 |
0.76 |
Total |
|
|
4.02 |
5.64 |
2.62 |
4.34 |
0.73 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: International Consolidated Minerals Ltd |
|
|
|
|
Production Plan and Costs
ICM has prepared a proposed mine
production plan for a term of nine years, which includes tonnage derived
from inferred resources. The company expects that it will be able to
increase the reserve tonnes basing its confidence on the continuity of
the mineralized bodies both along strike and down dip.
The production plan has been reviewed by
CSA, which found it to be realistic. The plan expects to generate a
concentrator feed consisting of blended ore derived from four of the
five mining areas. It is recognized that, unless additional resources in
the Arabia and Riqueza zones are discovered, the proven and probable
reserves in those two areas will be depleted during the fourth year of
operation which will mean that subsequent concentrator feed will be
derived from the Mantos and San Antonio areas. The Mantos area currently
has 2.21 million tonnes proven and probable reserves, containing metal
grades of 4.42 oz/t Ag; 2.45% Pb; 4.87% Zn; and 0.63% Cu. The San
Antonio area has proven and probable reserves of 135,495 tonnes with
metal grades of 6.16 oz/t Ag; 4.92% Pb; 4.38% Zn and 0.93% Cu.
ICM expects to use underground mining
methods and equipment, with concentrator feed increasing from an initial
100-400 tpd (month 1-5) to an average 1,000 tpd from the thirteenth
month of operation. First year concentrator feed is expected to reach a
total of 147,000 tonnes, and from year 2, ICM is planning to use a
density media separator plant (DMS) on run of mine (ROM) ore in the
Mantos area. DMS is a sorting system which creates a density contrast
allowing heavier minerals to be separated, which means that the 1,000
tpd concentrate feed will be of a higher metal grade than that of the
raw mined ore. As a result, the run of mine ore from year two will
consistently exceed the 1,000 tpd mill feed tonnes.
ICM has put together a detailed
exploration plan for Pachapaqui, as well as a detailed analysis of
probable capital expenditure and operating costs. The proposed
exploration plan for the mine will cost $20 million over
a two-to-five-year period and will include geological mapping, sampling,
and geophysics plus a comprehensive diamond drilling programme.
According to ICM, to bring the mine into production and mill capacity at
an average 1,000 tpd mill feed rate will require a capital spend of
$18.39 million plus $16.62 million in ongoing sustaining capital and
development costs spread over nine years. The initial capital investment
includes underground development; mill and equipment rehabilitation;
expansion and upgrade, underground workings, surface infrastructure,
working capital, and inventory repair and maintenance. The company
expects to achieve a total on-site cash operation cost of $45.44 per
tonne of mill feed ore over the nine year period.
|
|
|
Growth Strategy |
 |
 |
Following the reverse acquisition of
Platinum Diversified, ICM is well placed and remains fully funded to
accelerate the development and re-opening of the Pachapaqui mine within
a set timescale of 18 months. In order to meet its targets the extensive
exploration and drilling campaign commenced in early 2007 will
accelerate in 2008, which will lead to the completion of a bankable
feasibility study during 2008.
The company is not short of exploration
targets and it is expected to continue the delineation of identified
mineralization structures across the project area. There is significant
potential to extend the mine southwards, with those close to the company
believing that there is a real prospect of an extra estimated 70 million
oz silver equivalent discovery being made. ICM will continue to update
the mine-related infrastructure and to undertake engineering and mine
optimization studies in order to maximize operating efficiencies.
The cashflow from the Pachapaqui mine
will fund exploration of other targets within the concessions with a
view to increasing both the life and annual output of the facility.
However Greg Smith and his team are already looking at additional
development prospects in Peru and the cash can be used to bring
subsequent, as yet unidentified, targets into production.
|
|
|
SWOT Analysis |
 |
 |
Strengths
ICM owns 100% of the Pachapaqui mine, a
very attractive asset in a mineral rich province of Peru, a country
known for its mining history and infrastructure. Peru is the world’s
largest producer of silver and one of the largest producers of base
metals. Due to its poly-metallic nature, the Pachapaqui mine represents
a better economic proposition relative to single metal mines, as the
company can exploit the silver, copper, zinc and lead concentrates.
The strength of the mine’s economics can
be attributed to a number of factors, which include the ability of the
mine to replace reserves on an annual basis by drift development, the
currently 54 different ore zones in the ore reserve which remain open at
depth and along strike, plus the presence of additional identified
prospects that do not form part of the current resource/reserve base.
The industrial and investment demand for
precious and base metals has provided further inducements for mining
nations such as Peru to implement fiscal policies and improve mining
areas infrastructure. Peru is an attractive place to mine for precious
and base metals. The country is the largest gold producer in Latin
America, and the fifth in the world. It has 16% of the world’s silver
reserves and is the second largest silver producer in the world. It has
15% of the world’s copper reserves, and 7% of the world’s zinc reserves
and produces 33% of the world’s zinc and copper.
In turn, ICM has chosen to engage in a
long-term exploration programme which would potentially see the
Pachapaqui mine producing more for longer periods, thus extending the
potential for more new discoveries for the entire property. The
company’s objective is to increase and improve the quality of the
mineral reserves and resources and turn it into a world class
poly-metallic mining property. Attractive features include a combination
of low open-pit mining plus low-cost underground stope mining, the
presence of a mill concentrator, and other related
infrastructure that improve the technical feasibility and economic
viability of the whole project.
Weaknesses
Like all mine reopening plans, bringing
Pachapaqui back into production is not devoid of risk. At a legal level,
in order for ICM to continue exploration and beneficiation activities at
the Pachapaqui mine, the 10-year land agreement with the local
community, effective 1st January 2006, needs to be registered in order
to become enforceable. A number of other permits still need to be
obtained although the company appears confident on all counts.
There are project-specific risks in
relation to the tailings impoundment facility which could effect the
economics of the project. Question marks over execution and permitting
risks remain, whilst there is no certainty as to the successful EIS
commissioning for the expanded 4,000 tpd mining operation phase. As a
result, production and extension risks remain, hence the importance of
ICM showing real progress in the next couple of years becomes more
prevalent.
ICM has taken reasonable steps to compile
a detailed exploration and development programme as well as a production
plan over a term of nine years. Whilst historical production over a long
period of 13 years provides some comfort and confidence to the company
that a nine year mine life is achievable, the Pachapaqui mine has no
operating history at 1,000 tpd concentrate feed. Critically, there is no
certainty that further exploration along strike or in the area
surrounding current deposits will yield a significant uplift in the
mineable reserves.
The mine is subject to political risks. Peru currently enjoys
relatively stable political conditions and there is no civil unrest. The
Peruvian government determines internal affairs pertaining to the
economy and to the regulatory position of mining activities. The country
has a clear system of title. However, political stability cannot be
assumed forever. There is a clear relationship between metals prices and
the economics of this project. GE&CR takes a modestly optimistic view of
the medium term outlook for metals however a sharp fall in prices would
reduce the NPV of this project significantly. Any increase in metals
prices—or indeed maintenance of current levels—would increase the NPV
well above the base case outlined above.
Opportunities
ICM and its independent consultants have
shown that Pachapaqui is an attractive project where restoration and
re-opening is both technically and economically feasible. The mine has
produced, in the past, for a continuous period of 13 years, whilst more
recently it operated intermittently before it was placed on a care and
maintenance basis. The company already has a JORC-compliant resource and
reserve base which it can built upon, and the indications from activity
undertaken in 2007 are that additional exploration will result in a
significant increase and upgrading of the resources/reserves which would
increase both minelife and annual output and so make a dramatic impact
on the NPV. To meet this goal, the company will press ahead with a $15
million exploration and drilling programme spread over a period of two
to five years, which is likely to test further existing mineralization
zones and proceed with step-out drilling in areas where mineralization
remains open along strike and down dip.
Threats
Political instability at national or
regional level could derail ICM’s preparations and cause further delays.
The need to re-apply for permits for the proposed expansion could hinder
the project and push the production timeline schedule further back, thus
affecting production revenues and cash-flow generation. Peru has a long
history jostling between
democracy and military rule. The current president, Alan Garcia (in
his late 40s), who was democratically re-elected for a five-year term in
2006, is in a better position to govern the country. The economy of Peru
is in a much healthier state and the government has made in-roads
towards a policy of sustainable future growth and financial stability.
The next elections, set in 2011, could disrupt this continuity and
affect the economy of Peru as a whole.
|
|
|
Management |
 |
 |
On the completion of the reverse
acquisition of ICM and the company’s re-admission to AIM on September
14th 2007, Platinum’s founder shareholders, Mark Nordlicht, John Ryan,
Bobby Cooper and Thomas Loucks plus Brian Burgess retired from the
enlarged company’s board.
ICM’s board now consists of Greg Smith as
executive chairman and chief executive, Marvin Pelley as president and
chief operating officer, complemented by non-executive directors Jesse
Rodriguez and Louis Rodrigo. ICM as a group holds three closed companies
operating under Peruvian law, ICM Millotingo, ICM Pachapaqui and ICM
Procesadora.
Gregory Charles Smith, executive
chairman and chief executive Officer, aged 46.
Mr Smith is executive chairman of PetroLatina Energy Plc, an AIM
listed oil and gas exploration company with an initial focus on Latin
America. Before establishing ICM, he was the managing partner of TVL, a
company that specializes in raising venture capital for the energy and
mining sector. Between 1998 and 2001, he was the chairman of Powder
River Basin Gas Corporation, which was a successful operator of coal bed
methane in Wyoming, US. This merged with Imperial Petroleum in April
2003. From 1993 to 2001, he was president of Renaissance Companies Inc,
a structured finance group specializing in fund raising for the energy
and real estate sectors in the US. Mr Smith obtained a degree in
managerial sciences from the University of Nevada in 1984.
Marvin Hugh Pelley, president and
chief operating officer, aged 59.
Mr Pelley has been involved in the resources sector for almost 40 years.
He has a wide breadth of senior management and executive experience,
having been associated with underground and open pit mines across Canada
in copper, zinc, precious metals, coal, iron ore, and industrial
minerals; hydro development in Labrador, Canada and the Philippines;
government and community development engineering and construction
services; and mining contracting and consulting services between 1999
and 2005. From 1993 to 1999, Pelley was the president of Alagnak
Enterprises Inc., a mining and hydro-electric consulting service.
Between 1986 and 1993, Mr Pelley was president of Curragh Inc.,
overseeing start up mining and mineral concentrates. Between 1982 and
1986, he was manager at Quinette Coal Limited, overseeing engineering
and technical aspects of mining and mineral concentrates. He has
investigated potential mining investments throughout many parts of the
world, and potential electrical energy generation investments in
Kyrgyzstan, throughout the Far East, and in New Zealand and Australia.
Pelley is a past member of the board of directors of several
corporations and the Mining Association of British Columbia (Canada).
Jesse Michael Rodriguez,
Non-Executive Director, aged 42. Mr Rodriguez is a managing
director of Millennium Americas LLC and has 16 years’ experience in
principal investing, mergers and acquisitions, merchant banking, and
corporate governance. He has invested in, and worked on, situations in
the United States, Europe, Asia and Latin America, and he has advised
the government agencies of Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and the Dominican
Republic. Rodriguez’s investment and advisory experience extends to a
variety of industry sectors including mining, metals,
telecommunications, media, financial institutions, technology, business
services and diversified manufacturing. Prior to his work at Millennium,
Rodriguez served as a managing director of Huron Consulting Group where
he focused on distressed and restructuring situations in the United
States. From 1999 to 2002, Rodriguez was managing director and head of
Latin America mergers and acquisitions and merchant banking for Bank of
America Securities. In this capacity, he managed a portfolio of private
equity and mezzanine investments
|
|
|
Shareholders |
 |
 |
Subsequent to the reverse acquisition of
ICM, 42,173,752 ordinary shares of the company were admitted to AIM,
accompanied by 9,935,000 warrants. 4,496,200 ordinary shares were
redeemed during the 30-day period following re-admission, leaving the
company’s share capital at 37,677,552 ordinary shares in issue, of which
55.3% is in management/vendor hands and 44.7% in public hands. There are
10,576,308 warrants outstanding, consisting of the original 9.935
million warrants and consideration warrants of 641,308, pursuant to the
acquisition. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one ordinary
share in ICM at a price of US$6 and they expire in March 2010.The
shareholders with more than 3% interest are as follows:
Shareholder |
Shares Held |
Percent of Outstanding shares |
Management* |
17,332,007 |
46% |
MGSSA |
6,371,082 |
16.9% |
Founders of Platinum Diversified** |
2,483,752 |
6.59% |
Plata-Peru Resources |
2,344,299 |
6.2% |
Euro Americas Securities |
2,137,691 |
5.7% |
Anchorage Capital Master Offshore |
1,274,351 |
3.4% |
* These are Greg Smith, Marvin Pelley and
Jesse M. Rodriguez
**These are Mark Nordlicht, Bobby Cooper,
Howard Crosby, John Ryan and Thomas Loucks |
|
|
Recent Results, Balance Sheet and Cashflow |
 |
 |
The most recent financial results for ICM
were for the period ended 31 December 2006. ICM reported an overall loss
on ordinary activities of $12 million, a net asset figure of $24.46
million and cash at bank of $1 million on its balance sheet. The company
reported a modest gross profit of $149,271, with the main costs going
through the profit and loss account being $7.55 million in
administrative costs and $4.11 million for a provision for intangible
assets. The provision was made due to the fact that the company was
unable to obtain full legal title on San Luis and Milliontingo.
Intangibles assets of $35.29 million were shown on the company’s balance
sheet at 31 December 2006.
PDM’s latest results were also for the
period ended 31 December 2006, and showed a loss for the period of $4.77
million or 38 cents loss per share. The loss was attributable to
operating expenses of $7.695 million netted off against interest
receivable earned during the period of $2.93 million. PDM had $77.946
million in a trust fund, showing under investments on its balance sheet,
in line with its SPAC status, resulting in total net assets of $78
million. Other cash and cash equivalents were, a modest, US$91,000.
Following the acquisition, the enlarged
group is estimated to have a net asset base of approximately $289
million, consisting of $237 million in fixed assets, $63 million in
current assets, $6 million and $5.28 million in current and non-current
liabilities respectively. Cash in the bank is estimated to be around
$21.44 million.
Following the exercise of the conversion
and redemption rights of ICM shares, the enlarged group’s trust fund has
been reduced from $77.945 million to $40 million. The table below shows
how the company proposes to use this amount within the next 18 month
period.
Application of Funds |
|
|
|
Amount |
|
|
|
|
|
US$ million |
Drilling and exploration programme |
|
|
2.8 |
Preparation for bankable feasibility study for Pachapaqui Mine |
2.2 |
Maintenance, operation, equipment, building of Pachapaqui mine |
6.3 |
Working capital, including consumables and overheads in Peru |
9.0 |
Redemption of former debt obligations |
|
|
8.6 |
Repayment of existing liabilities of PDM |
|
|
4.4 |
Advisory services in relation to Acquisition |
|
5.6 |
Balance to go towards ongoing working capital requirements |
1.1 |
Total |
|
|
|
|
40 |
|
|
|
Valuation, Forecasts and Conclusion |
 |
 |
We have prepared a detailed DCF model for
restarting mining operations at the Pachapaqui mine over a nine year
mine-life plan. We assume that ICM will continue funding the project
from its available liquid resources (currently around $18 million) plus
the potential $60 million from the exercise of the 9.9 million warrants
@ $6 each.
Over the nine year period, our estimates
show the mine producing around 64.5 million oz/Ag, 737,900 tons Zn,
398,400 tons Pb, and 84,200 tons Cu in-concentrate. We view these
estimates to be conservative in nature, and hence we consider them as
base case production schedule estimates. The next four years will be
very important for the success of the Pachapaqui mine. 2008 will be a
period of continued drilling exploration and development activity with
the establishment of a targeted 15Mt-20Mt JORC status resource base.
2009 will see the completion of a feasibility study, upon which point
the construction of a 4,000 tpd mill will commence.
This is estimated to take 2 years to
build and hence it is estimated that the increased 4,000 tpd operation
will commence in early 2012, and it is on this basis we have arrived at
a Net Present valuation for the Pachapaqui asset. During 2008-2011, we
allowed modest production throughput rates on the basis of a 1,500 tpd
operation. During this initial period, we estimate an initial
in-concentrate production of 6.85 million oz/Ag, 45,600 tons Zn, 25,400
tons Pb and 6,500 tons Cu. Between 2012-2018, we expect a ramp-up to the
production schedule leading to a peak annual in-concentrate production
of 8.25 million oz Ag, 107,000 tons Zn, 55,000 tons Pb and 11,500 tons
Cu. We used modest metal prices in our model, discounting by an average
of 10%-15% the present metal prices and allowing for modest metal prices
increase over the nine year period.
Taking into consideration capital
expenditure of $75 million, a discount rate of 10%, conservative
taxation and royalty rates plus the employee participation scheme, we
arrive at a Net Present Value for the Pachapaqui mine of US$745 million.
Assuming all 11.073 million outstanding original PRM and ICM warrants
plus original PDM options are exercised, this values the Pachapaqui
property at US$14.5 per ICM share on a fully diluted basis.
A number of very early stage development
projects such as San Luis are not included in our valuation, given their
early stage exploration status but they, clearly, offer long-term upside
potential. We recognize that this company faces considerable risks in
bringing the mine at Pachapaqui into production, however, the company
remains fully funded and the enlarged entity following the reverse
acquisition, has a capable and experienced management team in place. Our
base case valuation allows for limited exploration upside at Pachapaqui
and none elsewhere in Peru and therefore there is significant upside
potential for ICM. At 285p, we initiate our coverage with a buy
recommendation and a target price of 725p.
|
|
This Research Note Cannot be Regarded as Impartial as GE&CR has
been commissioned to produce it by
International Consolidated Minerals.
The information in this document has been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed.
Growth Equities & Company Research is owned by t1ps.com Ltd
which is commissioned by companies to produce research
material under the Growth Equities & Company Research label.
However the estimates and content of the reports are, in all
cases, those of t1ps.com Ltd not of the companies concerned.
t1ps.com Limited is regulated by the Financial Services
Authority .This research report is for general guidance only
and t1ps.com Ltd cannot assume legal liability for any
errors or omissions it might contain. The value of
investments can go down as well as up and you may not get
back the full amount you invested. The past is not
necessarily a guide to future performance. The difference
between the buy price and the sell price for smaller company
shares can be significant. Before investing, readers should
seek professional advice from a Financial Services Authority
authorised Stockbroker or Financial Adviser.
t1ps.com limited can be contacted at 5-11, Worship Street
EC2A 2BH - email
stelios.stylianou@t1ps.com - fax 020 7628 3815 - tel 020
7562 3375
|
|
|