Welcome to the Sportsman
Three exclusive sport betting tips from UK-Analyst.com - 08/03/06

A sumptuous feast of sporting action dishes up a healthy serving of profitable opportunities to grace the inaugural Sportsman column. I shall endeavour to siphon the most attractive ones from of the deluge of roulette-esque bets that engulf them

Manchester United vs. Portsmouth (FA Cup, 12:45 Saturday 8th March)

My first port of call is none other than the Theatre of Dreams, aptly named for its flamboyant residents, Manchester United who have strutted their stuff in magical fashion at times this season before the 75,000-strong crowd, many of whom might have felt like they were in dreamland, as the Red Devils cast their sensational spell over league leaders Arsenal in the previous round of the FA Cup. A resounding 4-0 victory over their London rivals saw the Premier League Champions installed as favourites across the board to lift football's most famous domestic cup for a record 12th time.

Standing in their path are understated Portsmouth, not short of attacking flair themselves and well positioned in the league table after a fine start to the season. If history is anything to go by, which is often not without merit in football, the omens don't bode well for the south coast side, who haven't triumphed at Old Trafford for over half a century. Current form would seem the most logical factor to take into account, but at the risk of getting drawn into bleating about the over-publicised jargon that is the ‘romance of the Cup’, Championship strugglers Barnsley well and truly kept the cliché spouters in employment with their inexplicable victory against Liverpool at Anfield in the fifth round that defied all rhyme or reason.

Harry Redknapp is no stranger to F.A. cup success as a visiting manager at Old Trafford, having led West Ham to victory there in 2001, as Paulo di Canio outwitted Fabien Barthez to record a 1-0 victory to the east Londoners. His record at the ground with his current side is conversely miserable, leaving empty-handed on no less than five occasions, including a 2-1 defeat in the competition last season. However, the visitors are not without reason to enter the match with confidence. They boast one of the best away records in the Premier League, with eight victories, only bettered by Chelsea, signifying their different set up and approach to games on the road.

The F.A. Cup may be a lowly third on the list of United’s trophy priorities this season but squad rotation has worked a charm for Ferguson this season; no more evident than the 4-0 win over Arsenal that saw the likes of Ronaldo, Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Tevez rested. The F.A. Cup remains Portsmouth’s only realistic hope of silverware this season and they should be well rested for the encounter, having not played since Sunday’s 3-1 reverse against high-flying Everton. Despite the visitor’s away day successes, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them adopt a more cautious approach in a bid to contain their marauding hosts. Redknapp and Pompey would have no qualms about taking United back to Fratton Park for a replay, where they have won two of the last four meetings.

Enough of the long winded analysis, now for some betting at long last! United have racked up 32 goals in their 12 home league games, which suggests Portsmouth could be in for a long afternoon. Sporting Index go 44-47 on the total shirt numbers of goal scorers in the match, and with some high numbers likely to be involved, this looks to present a good opportunity. The success of this bet largely depends on team selection, but with United’s number 32, Carlos Tevez only featuring for 20 minutes of the match in midweek, he looks to be in line for a starting berth. Elsewhere on the park, two-goal hero of the last round, Darren Fletcher (24) should be rewarded with a recall to the starting line up, although admittedly it is unlikely he finds the net again for the remainder of the season, let alone the upcoming 90 minutes. Luis Nani (17) also struck against Arsenal in the last round and his fine form of late merits a place in the starting line-up. Cristiano Ronaldo (7), Wayne Rooney (10) and Paul Scholes (18) are the usual suspects, although they may be rested for part or most of this clash. On the other side, Portsmouth are expected to bring in Kanu (27) up front in the absence of cup-tied Jermaine Defoe, while Nico Kranjcar (19) is always a threat from distance, as England found to their cost at Wembley recently. Pedro Mendes (30) who scored the famous goal that never was on this ground three seasons ago is back in contention, while John Utaka (17) has proven his goal scoring credentials this season. The added aerial menace from Sol Campbell (23) and Sylvain Distan (15) at set-pieces, make shirt numbers a "speculative buy" at 47.

Liverpool vs. Newcastle United (Premier League, 15:00 Saturday 8th March)

Kevin Keegan returns to the ground where he witnessed his 1996 title challenge as Newcastle boss halted in dramatic fashion by Liverpool in a 4-3 thriller. The echoing words “Collymore closing innnnnnnn!” were bellowed through the commentator’s microphone for the goal that was to be replayed countless times thereafter, leading to the shot of Keegan slumping over the advertising board before him in disbelief and devastation. The latter has been what Keegan and the Geordie faithful have become accustomed to since his astonishing return to the helm at Newcastle. Without a win since taking charge for the second time, and having been on the wrong end of a massacre at the hands of old foe, Sir Alex Ferguson and back-to-back footballing lessons from Arsenal, the Toon Army have found themselves dragged into a relegation dogfight.

With a Fernando Torres-inspired Liverpool in blistering form, the Merseysiders look primed to continue to carve the knife into the heart of Keegan’s homecoming. Newcastle have conceded 17 goals in their last six matches, scoring just three times in response. Keegan’s repeated bold claims upon arrival that he would inspire his team to ‘have a go’ have failed to materialise thus far, and it would be suicidal to enter this match with a kamikaze mentality against a Liverpool side that have scored 10 in their last three matches and blew the bloody doors off Italian Champions and runaway league leaders, Internazionale in the match immediately following their shock defeat to Barnsley.

The fourth qualifying place for next season’s Champions League has taken on increasing importance as the rest of the Red’s domestic campaign has flickered out. In fierce competition with Everton for fourth spot in the league, the penny finally seems to have dropped for coach Rafa Benitez that he cannot afford to leave out his star players in any match during the run-in. Ominously for Newcastle, Spanish hitman Torres has bagged two hat-tricks in his last two home games, and the often shambolic Newcastle defence will certainly make his eyes light up. At the back, the usually reliable Liverpool rear guard has been breached with increasing regularity lately. Havant & Waterlooville, Barnsley, Aston Villa, Middlesbrough have all struck twice at Anfield this season, and Newcastle should know they cannot expect to come away from the match with any points should they fail to score. Michael Owen returns to face the club he will surely regret leaving, forever more, and it would be fitting of the contest and the occasion were he to get on the score-sheet.

Liverpool won the reverse fixture 3-0 at St. James’s Park earlier in the season and Sporting Index quote total goals at 2.6-2.8 for the Anfield clash. Given the respective form and consequences relating to both teams, the 2.8 stands out as a red hot "buy".

Ireland vs. Wales (Six Nations, 13:15 Saturday 8th March)

The Six Nations rugby action this weekend sees unbeaten Wales make the trip to Croke Park to take on an Ireland side buoyed by their recent win over the Scots. Victory for the visitors would put them within one win of the Grand Slam, which they would have the chance of completing in their own back yard. Ireland remain a daunting prospect on home soil but were made to look good by a lacklustre Scotland side that offered precious little. The Welsh, on the other hand roared past Italy by a convincing margin to follow up triumphs over Scotland and a famous victory against England at Twickenham.

If the hosts bring to the table the abject form they showed during the World Cup and their laboured win over Italy, Wales will fancy their chances of stunning the vociferous home supporters. Sporting Index are calling this one marginally in favour of the hosts, which presents an opportunity to snap up the value on the Welsh in what should prove to be a fiery affair between the Celtic rivals. "Sell" Ireland -3.5 at 12.