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Welcome to the Sportsman t’s another busy weekend of top sporting action ahead, where football takes a back seat to the nation’s beloved steeplechase – the 16.15 at Aintree. To the Grand National first, then and high street bookmakers will be inundated with once-a-year punters unable to resist the lure of a flutter on what is widely regarded as the world’s most famous horse race. Favourites are notoriously toppled in the 4 mile 4 furlong chase, with only two of the last 10 market toppers obliging, but that won’t prevent a flurry of cash for this year’s jolly, Cloudy Lane. The Irish have a stellar record over the high fences of the challenging course, having trained four of the last five winners. This year’s charge is led by Slim Pickings, who finished third last year and is trained by the wily Tom Taaffe, who has a 2006 Gold Cup victory with Kicking King under his belt. Taaffe knows how to prepare a horse for a big race and has kept Slim Pickings well sheltered with this meeting in mind. It is argued the winning horse is likely to carry a weight between 10st 11lbs and 11st 3lbs, and Slim Pickings rider, Barry Geraghty fits this bill. Furthermore, nine-year olds have been the most successful age group in recent times, emerging victorious in 8 of the last 29 years; another statistic that bodes well for Slim Pickings. Everyone should have a winning fancy and an each-way selection so my other pick against the field is Mr Pointment, who won the Becher Chase in November. Speculative “buy” of Slim Pickings @ 21 (where 100 is awarded for 1st, 60 for 2nd, 40 for 3rd, 30 for 4th, 20 for 5th and 10 for 6th) Saturday gets underway with part deux of the Arsenal-Liverpool Trilogy, at the Emirates. The first instalment saw the Gunners take an early lead before Steven Gerrard powered into the penalty area to set up the an unlikely Dirk Kuyt equaliser. The home side then pounded away at the visitors’ door for the remaining 64 minutes of the match without success, as Nicklas Bendtner contrived to halt his team-mate’s goal-bound effort and the Dutch referee waved away shouts for an Arsenal penalty when his countryman, Kuyt looked to have felled Alexander Hleb in the box. Liverpool once again emerged with a good result in a European tie but they are bizarrely a very different proposition in the league. However, the expected absence of Arsenal’s key men up front is enough to dissuade me from siding with them in this league encounter, the corresponding fixture in which they triumphed 3-0 last season. Wenger’s side will realise the importance of entering the second leg with the psychological boost a victory over Liverpool would bring, ahead of what will be a titanic clash at Anfield. Arsenal are worthy favourites to extend their domestic dominance over the Reds. The first of the F.A. Cup semi finals sees Championship side West Bromwich Albion tackle the only remaining Premier League side in the competition, Portsmouth, at Wembley. Harry Redknapp has never before been involved in a competitive match at the famous venue, either as a player or a manager and he will never have a better chance of reaching the Cup final. Having fortuitously overcome Manchester United in the last round, Pompey are firm favourites to dispose of Play-Off chasing West Brom, who smashed five past Bristol Rovers in the quarter finals. It will also be Baggies’ boss, Tony Mowbray’s first Wembley appearance as a manager. Needless to say, both teams will be up for this and I can see there being goals at both ends. It has been a year of shocks but Harry’s side can justify favouritism and edge it to ensure it won’t be the first F.A. Cup final in history not to feature a top-flight club. Aston Villa vs. Bolton Wanderers (Premier League, 15:00 Saturday 5th April) Two teams both put to the sword last week, although the manner in which they met their demise could hardly have been any different. Whilst Aston Villa were repeatedly sliced apart by the silky-smooth skills of the dazzling Ronaldo & Co. in a 4-0 mauling at Old Trafford, Bolton looked home and hosed as they entered the final third of the game, 2-0 up against a 10-man misfiring Arsenal side at the Reebok, only to capitulate in suicidal fashion ending with an agonising 3-2 defeat. The ramifications of that disastrous result for the Trotters were visibly etched across the players' faces and demeanours as they trudged off the soggy pitch before an emptying stadium of disconsolate supporters. It would be a mighty ask for Wanderers to now regroup and steer clear of the relegation zone that has now all but consumed them. Aston Villa are also in a dire run of form that has seen any lingering hopes of a European berth next season flicker out. Prior to last weekend's demolition, Villa paid the price for their ineffectiveness in the attacking third as they were sucker punched by a late Sunderland strike in a 1-0 home defeat. A far cry from the scintillating performances Martin O'Neil's men turned in earlier in the season, most memorably at White Hart Lane and Stamford Bridge in two 4-4 thrillers. The Midlands unit may be struggling for goals but I still fancy them to take advantage of a deflated Bolton to return to winning ways. Last week Bolton managed to shut out their opponents until the 62nd minute but I would expect Villa to set about their business right from the off and impose themselves on their struggling opponents. Sporting Index has set the spread of first Villa goal at 46-49, which implies a first half drought is expected. The rationale behind this is not difficult to understand. Indeed, Villa have failed to score in their last three matches and you would have to go back six matches to find the last goal scored by a Villa player from open play. Further support comes from the fact that they haven't scored before the 45th minute in a league match since the second week of January. However, the case against this is formed by Bolton having conceded the first goal in their last three away matches in the 35th, 25th and 9th minute respectively. Bolton have also let in exactly half of the 48 league goals they have conceded, in the first half of matches. With spirits and confidence low, Gary Megson's side could be vulnerable in the early stages, while the home side will be keen to end the season on a high. Villa are value to find the back of the net in the first half of the match and the earlier the better. Speculative “sell” of first Aston Villa goal @ 46.
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