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Sell West Ham first goal, West Ham vs. Derby County (Premier League, 15:00 Saturday 19th April) There aren’t many occasions in a season when West Ham can be backed with confidence, but if ever there was a time, it would be for the visit of probably the worst team to ever grace the Premier League, Derby County. The Rams are woeful and have picked up just one point from their last 50 games. Ok, perhaps it’s not that bad, but the ease with which Aston Villa tore them apart last weekend highlighted how much the players are out of their depth in this division. Before I get carried away and predict a repeat of the Hammers’ 5-0 mauling of Derby at Pride Park earlier in the season, it is worth noting Alan Curbishley’s makeshift sides have only won one of their last eight matches and failed to score in five of them. With West Ham dwelling in mid-table obscurity and Derby marooned, awaiting the curtain call on their season, it would be fitting for this match to be staged at Pride Park, as there is not much else for either side to play for. West Ham have the third lowest home goal tally in the league but to be fair to the east London club, they have been beleaguered with injuries this season to key personnel. They will surely have to strengthen in the summer if they are not to run into trouble again next season but the bubble blowing home supporters will demand a win on Saturday and a convincing one at that. To Derby’s credit, they have acquitted themselves reasonably well on their last two away days, losing only 1-0 each time, but last week demonstrated they can come totally unstuck, allowing the floodgates to burst wide open. Whilst I cannot bring myself to recommend a buy of West Ham @ 19.5 against anybody on any ground at the moment, there could be some value elsewhere in the market. The Hammers may be goal-shy but they could be a decent bet to get on the score-sheet fairly early on in the game and the first West Ham goal market provides the opportunity to back them to do so. Sporting Index has set the spread at 40-43, so sellers would be looking for the typically toothless home side to open the scoring inside the first 40 minutes to see a positive return. Despite Derby’s 25 defeats this season, there is a case to justify the high spread. In 9 of their previous 14 matches, Paul Jewell’s men have reached the interval at 0-0, before going on to leak goals in the second half. A season overview shows that Derby have conceded 30 of their 74 league goals in the first half of matches but only 16 of their 41 away goals against, have come in the first 45 minutes. The other side of the equation are West Ham with only 13 first half goals in the league this term and only 41 in total. However, they have managed to pierce the opposition defense during the first half in 7 of their last 12 matches at the Boleyn. The positive news for Curbishley ahead of the match is that his squad’s injury nightmare is set to ease, as captain, Lucas Neil and midfielders, Freddie Ljungberg and Mark Noble are available for selection once again. The stats may suggest Derby can hold out until at least half time and West Ham are liable to fire blanks, but stats have been made to look very silly in the past and a "speculative sell" of first West Ham goal @ 40 stands out as good value to throw the form book out of the window.
Blackburn Rovers vs. Manchester United (Premier League, 17:15 Saturday 19th April) After the lingering excitement of the title race was all but extinguished by Emile Heskey of all people, during the week, Sir Alex Ferguson will be enjoying his scotch all the more for knowing a 10th Premier League crown is there for the taking. His formidable side make the short trip to Blackburn for Saturday’s late kick-off as they attempt to extend their lead to five points with four to play. Ewood Park has not been the happiest of hunting grounds for United in recent seasons, having won on just one of their last seven visits there, losing three of them. That victory came last season as a Louis Saha strike sealed a 1-0 win for the eventual Champions. Rovers are no mugs on their own patch and United old boy Mark Hughes will have no qualms about denting the title ambitions of the side he had most of his playing success with. United are of course firm favourites to emerge with all three points, but with arguably their biggest game of the season the following Wednesday – a Champions League semi-final clash with Barcelona at the Camp Nou, the players may not break a leg to win what should be a rugged derby against a determined outfit on a ground they have struggled in the past. There is no value in siding with the visitors but a fair bet appears to be a "speculative sell" of total goal minutes @ 130 in what I expect to be a tight encounter, with few goals. 888.com Snooker World Championship (19th April – 5th May)
The World Championship will feature at the Crucible in Sheffield for the 32nd time and this year’s event is wide open. The enigmatic two-time World Champion, Ronnie O’Sullivan is once again the favourite to exert his class on the field and triumph for a third time, with current world number 1 and 2005 winner Shaun Murphy and last year’s runner up, Mark Selby also fancied to go well. O’Sullivan’s superb potting ability and attacking style will win him favour with many punters and viewers. Although he is not renowned for his defensive game, he is also tactically astute at safety play. By far the biggest question mark over the mercurial Englishman is his mentality, at and away from the table. At the quarter final stage of the 2005 championships, Peter Ebdon infamously bored the living daylights out of ‘The Rocket’ by taking excessive amounts of time to play each shot, on one occasion circling the table for over five minutes before striking a ball. O’Sullivan let his frustration get the better of him that day, as his petulance came to the fore. There have been other instances of eccentric behaviour from O’Sullivan at other events around on calendar, most recently his controversial comments at the China Open. The Rocket does have the advantage of what on paper appears to be a favourable draw and with and will have his supporters to prevail from his quarter.
Amongst the other leading contenders, Shaun Murphy, shot to stardom by winning the 2005 event with some brilliant all-round play across the two-week event. The 25-year old is one of the most consistent performers on the circuit, which is reflected in his world number 1 ranking. Murphy has reached the semi-finals at five events this season; however has only gone on to win one of them, losing out in several nerve-racking final frames. Shaun Murphy has the ability to go all the way once again if he can get a stranglehold on matches early on. A potential opponent en route for Murphy is Mark Selby, who edged him out 17-16 in the semi-finals last year. Selby has been in good form this season, having won the Masters and the Welsh Open in addition to reaching the last four of three other events. ‘The Jester from Leicester’ is the man in form with a proven temperament of winning big titles. His run to the final last year stunned many but a repeat this year will come as no surprise. Both Murphy and Selby are in the bottom half of the draw and are seeded to meet in the quarter-finals. The top half contains the likes of O’Sullivan, Hendry, Doherty, Ding, and the defending champion, John Higgins. O’Sullivan cannot be written off and could blow everyone away if the mood strikes him but it’s safer to side with players who you are almost certain to get a good run for your money from. Sporting Index has set the spread on both Selby and Murphy at 35-38 (100 for the winner, 70 runner up, 50 semi final, 33 quarter final, 20 second round). It is worth backing both considering that should they meet in the quarters, one will be guaranteed a spot in the semis and likely to be the favourite to reach the final, while losses would be sizably cut on the other. "Buy" S. Murphy World Snooker Championship Outright Index @ 38 "Buy" M. Selby World Snooker Championship Outright Index @ 38
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