Previous Tips

Fulham vs. Birmingham City (Premier League, 15:00 Saturday 3rd May)

It is not often the most significant game of the day will feature Fulham and Birmingham, even if it is the only match on the card. However, with both teams playing for their Premier League survival, this clash between second and third bottom will attract the interest of more than just the few thousand attendees that will cram into Craven Cottage.

Following two successive away wins, Fulham have dragged themselves out of the mire to within just three points of safety and two behind their Midlands fellow relegation zone dwellers. The Cottagers appeared doomed several weeks ago, with resignation etched across the face of manager Roy Hodgson following a string of disappointing results. All that has changed after a spirited mini-run that has seen the west London outfit pick up 11 points from their previous eight matches, including a stunning comeback from the depths of despair, as they trailed Man City, 2-0, entering the final 20 minutes before remarkably emerging 3-2 winners. Birmingham City on the other hand have slid down the table into the drop zone after an inconsistent run of form. Brum have collected 11 points from their last 10 matches but lost their last four on the road by an aggregate scoreline of 13-4, having been trounced 5-1 by city rivals, Villa, in their last outing. Last weekend, Alex McLeish witnessed his side throw away a 2-0 lead against a weakened Liverpool side at St. Andrew's to only claim a point. With the teams around them all picking up vital points, the anxious faces of the home supporters told the story. This is a certainly a must-win game for Fulham, while Birmingham must also get a result to clamber out of the bottom three.

Fulham's bright run has been no accident. Much improved performances of late have merited the points accrued, none more so than at the Madejski, where Fulham took the game to Reading and were denied by the framework of the Royals' goal on several occasions before finally sealing their first away win for over a year. Fulham were duly outclassed by Liverpool in their next match before recording their second away win in succession at Eastlands last weekend. These performances suggest that the players are playing with a purpose and are prepared to knuckle down and fight for the cause. In their final home match of the season, the team will be expected to throw everything at Birmingham in order to set themselves up for a final day visit to Portsmouth, where they are likely to face a side with its focus firmly on the Cup final.

Birmingham have not struggled for goals in recent games, with 17 in their last 10, although, many of these have come at home. With their last match of the season a difficult trip to Blackburn, the importance of this match to both teams becomes all the more evident. Fulham's defense has hardly been watertight, leaking 11 goals in their last six matches. This indicates there could be goals on the menu and the striking value from a betting perspective is Sporting Index’s ‘Last Match Goal’ market, with the spread on the minute it arrives at 61-64. This is ridiculously low given the context of the match and the statistics. Fulham’s late fightback and injury minute winner against Man City demonstrated that a match is never over until the final whistle blows, and in a scrap for survival, these two teams will battle till the end. Fulham’s three strikes at the City of Manchester stadium were timed at 70’, 79’ and 92’. Prior to that, against Reading, they underlined their dominance of the match with a goal in the 92nd minute. In the two preceding games, Fulham scored on 74’ and 78’ respectively and going further back, the Cottagers netted crucial goals to claim points in the 67th minute at home to Everton, in the 89th minute away at Blackburn and fired home on 73’ and 86’ to come from a goal down to beat Aston Villa at Craven Cottage. Whilst Fulham have had their fair share of late goals in their favour, as with all relegation-threatened teams, they have also been susceptible defensively, conceding in the 70th minute and beyond in four of their last six matches.

Taking into account goals at both ends, in each of Fulham’s last 10 matches, the final goal has been notched after the 64th minute. For Birmingham, it’s a similar story, with 8 of their last 10 matches featuring at least one goal scored after the 64th minute, including their last three matches on the spin. With this is mind and magnitude of what is at stake for both sides, last match goal is a “strong speculative buy” @ 64.