Previous Tips

Portsmouth vs. Cardiff City (FA Cup Final, 15:00 Saturday 17th May)

The FA Cup final takes centre stage this weekend, where a capacity crowd is expected to fill out the 90,000-seater redeveloped Wembley Stadium. However, the handful watching the mouth-watering clash between Portsmouth and Cardiff City on television might do well to spot the supporters of either club, given that more than half the attendees will be of the ‘prawn sandwich brigade’, as Roy Keane dubbed those who lack the high levels of passion typically associated with ‘true’ football fans.

The Football Association was accused by some last year of manipulating the competition to ensure two big clubs met in the first final to be staged at “the new Wembley”. Manchester United and Chelsea contested the showpiece and duly played out a cagey goalless draw. The FA can hardly be accused of conspiring to do the same this year, as Pompey take on the Bluebirds of the second tier of English football in the 127th FA Cup final. The match would do well to be less of a spectacle in footballing terms than last year’s final, but that shouldn’t be ruled out.

Portsmouth’s run to the final kicked off win a 1-0 victory over Championship side Ipswich, before having to come from behind to squeeze past Plymouth 2-1 in the fourth round. Next up, a late own goal was enough for Pompey to extend their passage as they beat Preston 1-0, which was followed up by further 1-0 victories over eventual Premier League champions, Manchester United and then Championship winners, West Bromwich Albion.

Cardiff got their campaign up and running with a 3-1 win at non-league Chasetown, before a 2-1 victory over League Two Hereford. In the fifth round, Dave Jones’s side saw off the challenge of fellow Championship side Wolves by two goals to nil, before upsetting the applecart with a 2-0 win at the Riverside over a lacklustre Middlesbrough side, and in the semi-finals, the Bluebirds edged out Barnsley by a single goal.

This will be Harry Redknapp’s first FA Cup final as either a player or a manager in a career that has spanned over 40 years. The former Bournemouth, West Ham and Southampton boss will feel vindicated after turning down the hot-seat at Newcastle earlier in the season, when he seemed certain to be on this way. His opposite number, Dave Jones, likewise has never reached an FA Cup final in his career but one suspects that Redknapp will be the man most of the footballing world would wish to see lift the trophy for the first, and in all probability, only time.

Since sealing their spot in the final, Harry Redknapp’s side have suffered an alarming dip in form that saw them limp to the end of the league season with four defeats on the trot. More concerning for the south coast outfit is that they failed to score in their last three matches, and this was with Jermaine Defoe within their ranks. The former Tottenham hitman is cup-tied following his move from White Hart Lane and is therefore ineligible for selection in the competition wearing the colours of Portsmouth. Of Pompey’s other strikers, Milan Baros has endured a dreadful run and is yet to score since his arrival from French champions, Lyon; David Nugent has been out of favour with Redknapp almost since he stepped onto a pitch in a Portsmouth shirt, whilst the ageing Kanu has scored just six goals all season, although he did grab the winner in the semi-final against West Brom, albeit a tap-in from no more than two yards out.

Cardiff, the only non-English club to ever lift the FA Cup, back in 1927, ended the season strongly, easing to a 3-0 league victory over their semi-final conquests, Barnsley. This was their only win from their last four matches, having leaked three goals in each of the previous three, although they have found the back of the net six times in their last two outings. However, Portsmouth have demonstrated throughout the competition they are a very tough nut to crack, as Manchester United discovered to their cost. Pompey have conceded just one goal en-route to the final, but scored only six in the process, the lowest tally for 10 years. Recent history indicates the Cup final is typically a low-scoring affair, with only four of the last 16 final matches featuring three goals or more, and only five of the past 22.

Portsmouth may be on a dismal run of form, but it would not be unfair to attribute that to the players looking ahead to their big day out at Wembley. Having had little to play for in the league as the season drew to a close, they could also be accused of taking it easy and not wanting to risk injury. However, it is a side of vastly experienced players who should have little difficulty rising to the occasion. Cardiff faced just one Premier League side on the road to Wembley, and having finished only 12th in the Championship, they are undoubtedly a level beneath their opponents.

In what has all the makings of another tight encounter, following the trend of recent FA Cup finals and the results of both sides in the competition to date, Pompey can reflect their superiority over their lower league opposition in the manner that has brought them to this stage. Sporting Index offer just such an opportunity to take advantage. For Portsmouth to score 1 and win the match in normal time, the spread is 12-15, with 25 points for the correct half-time score and 50 points awarded for the correct full time score. Therefore, buyers only need to see Portsmouth leading 1-0 and half time to see a handsome return, and if the match goes on to finish 1-0, it would equate to 75 points. To be on the safe side, it would also be advisable to cover the eventuality of the south coast side rediscovering their scoring touch and notching two goals against a fragile Cardiff defence. The selection of Portsmouth scoring 2 and winning includes both 2-0 and 2-1 score lines and carries a spread of 11-14, with the same rules applying. A more conservative, related bet would be a simple sell of total goals @ 2.2, to make what is likely to be another dull final, enjoyable.

Speculative buy CS: Por Score 1 and Win @ 15
Speculative buy CS: Por Score 2 and Win @ 14